Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x946a4694ebab87b0d4c0381db220b3062a0e68f38a868f56763e85a1d23e421c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,962
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,962 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked No | 0c | 2,425$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 102 | 19.6%20 W · 82 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 19c | 660.08$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.67 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 441.62$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.92 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 394$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.49 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 14c | 375.39$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.14 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 73c | 309.03$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.33 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 73c | 222.38$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.72 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 43c | 205.77$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.73 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 19c | 177.66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.35 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf709…7697backed Yes | 36c | 139.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.03 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 59c | 137.83$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.45 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 28c | 136.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.2 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 29c | 135$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.85 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 25c | 134.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 30c | 133.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.5 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 74c | 126.74$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.84 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 123.78$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 105.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.89 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 70c | 104.5$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d2…ff97backed Yes | 17c | 101.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.55 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 27c | 100.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.71 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.07 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…eae5backed No | 20c | 95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 35c | 85.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.51 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 28c | 80.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.45 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 78.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.2 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 78.51$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 74$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 21c | 72.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 26c | 69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 29c | 68.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 76c | 68.33$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 20c | 67.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b3…8334backed Yes | 21c | 63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked No | 69c | 58.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3313…92adbacked Yes | 20c | 57.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 29c | 55.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 75c | 54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 28c | 52.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No | 38c | 51.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed Yes | 32c | 48.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 80c | 45.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 74c | 42.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…be1dbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 82 | 18.3%15 W · 67 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…9ad9backed No | 73c | 39.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 39.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd540…f3dbbacked Yes | 28c | 39.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked No | 73c | 38.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 31c | 38.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdeb…0426backed Yes | 28c | 36.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfca1…c1bebacked Yes | 34c | 34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58d6…49b0backed No | 32c | 33.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 71c | 29.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 75c | 27.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 69c | 26.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 78c | 25.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x715a…3e75backed No | 76c | 25.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 71c | 25.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…f366backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 74c | 23.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 75c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 50c | 20.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x145d…98edbacked No | 69c | 19.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 73cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 74c | 19.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a9…48a0backed No | 75c | 18.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 17.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…4895backed No | 71c | 17.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -9.8wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…a6ccbacked No | 75c | 15.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf368…cfb1backed No | 79c | 15.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C or higher on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.