Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a01b360f52a74b7c3432b3f63d7e2759f0dce956d23c2d283c93834ec213eee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,591
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,059
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,591 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 37c | 431.03$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.58 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 353.82$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.44 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 29c | 213.42$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.31 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 8c | 188.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 73c | 186.96$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.71 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 74c | 157.01$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 150.04$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 74c | 127.7$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 63c | 120.04$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 34c | 116.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 71c | 112.34$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 107.68$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 62c | 99.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 50c | 97.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 55c | 88.01$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 79.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6248…27f6backed Yes | 30c | 75.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 75.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 74$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ea…46d5backed Yes | 28c | 71.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 43c | 69.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 25c | 69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 73c | 65.25$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes | 29c | 61.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 31c | 59.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 58.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 67c | 56.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff7…dbfabacked No | 75c | 50.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 100 | 81%81 W · 19 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed Yes | 27c | 49.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d31…2f85backed Yes | 24c | 47.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 35c | 46.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 29c | 46.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…1751backed Yes | 30c | 43.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 66c | 41.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 50c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 55c | 40.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…640cbacked Yes | 27c | 40.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 29c | 36.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…9899backed Yes | 48c | 31.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 70c | 27.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc39…fb21backed No | 74c | 27.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 72c | 27.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked No | 72c | 24.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 71c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 55c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 66c | 22.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc237…e340backed No | 73c | 22.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 48c | 22.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…a4d5backed No | 63c | 22.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 64c | 20.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 72c | 19.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97f1…a523backed No | 74c | 16.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 68c | 14.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x284c…364cbacked No | 77c | 14.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on May 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C or higher on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.