Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bdee7aa3b6ff4a3c7d84f7a47e5df9ce76ce5ce2ec2b09ce79b8186996b1688
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,704
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,880
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,704 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf270…3c46backed Yes | 23c | 591.35$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.3 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 22c | 518.08$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.38 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 30c | 427.15$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.73 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 13c | 388.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 78c | 212.26$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.64 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 73c | 182.06$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.54 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 78c | 146$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 23c | 142.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 135.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 125.41$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 73c | 120.04$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 10c | 113.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 109.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 79c | 97.47$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 72c | 82.11$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 80.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6410…ee60backed Yes | 16c | 80.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ea…46d5backed Yes | 28c | 70.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 16c | 69.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes | 24c | 62.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 68c | 62.65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 28c | 57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…640cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 32c | 49.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 48.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 71c | 46.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 42.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 73c | 41.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 76c | 39.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…0589backed No | 68c | 25.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 86 | 73.3%63 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…cb91backed No | 77c | 21.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 20.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x599f…3317backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 125 | 78.4%98 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 71c | 19.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43c7…18dbbacked No | 73c | 15.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…8f82backed No | 75c | 14.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 74cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on May 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C or higher on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.