Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: LNG (-1.5) vs Ultra Prime (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99d9f6fbecb440bb89ef9773a37a9a6f6c26af2e95763180a26ee972fdb41fac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ultra Primeof LNG Esports, Ultra Prime
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,010
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,504
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,010 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed Ultra Prime | 48c | 4,567$2,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,388.8 | 1,630 | 40.1%654 W · 976 L | +48.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3af1…d739backed Ultra Prime | 48c | 4,003$1,921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,081.6 | 511 | 46.8%239 W · 272 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa941…ec2ebacked LNG Esports | 53c | 2,500$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,325 | 511 | 60.3%308 W · 203 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked LNG Esports | 52c | 2,296$1,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,188.59 | 647 | 49.9%323 W · 324 L | -24.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0636…c529backed LNG Esports | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13c7…11d9backed LNG Esports | 64c | 2,000$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,279.94 | 712 | 49.2%350 W · 362 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c8…ce5cbacked Ultra Prime | 36c | 1,120$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.91 | 488 | 44.3%216 W · 272 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b39…7fbcbacked LNG Esports | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…48a4backed Ultra Prime | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 474 | 55.3%262 W · 212 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeed6…ec56backed LNG Esports | 51c | 968.86$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.12 | 206 | 49.5%102 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed LNG Esports | 50c | 829.16$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.05 | 1,827 | 45.6%834 W · 993 L | +26.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed LNG Esports | 51c | 672.74$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.69 | 861 | 44.1%380 W · 481 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa11…e3c0backed LNG Esports | 55c | 518.18$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed LNG Esports | 50c | 450$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 2,362 | 32%755 W · 1,607 L | +42.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Ultra Prime | 33c | 350.43$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.19 | 1,134 | 31%352 W · 782 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…5fa2backed Ultra Prime | 49c | 323.5$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.26 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c36…08f5backed Ultra Prime | 43c | 318.51$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.52 | 156 | 35.9%56 W · 100 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Ultra Prime | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 1,794 | 51.1%917 W · 877 L | +50.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc4…d48cbacked Ultra Prime | 46c | 263.53$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.53 | 275 | 40.4%111 W · 164 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…3cc3backed Ultra Prime | 46c | 259.04$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.04 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Ultra Prime | 45c | 241.1$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.61 | 171 | 36.3%62 W · 109 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f6…b0f2backed Ultra Prime | 51c | 232.41$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.4 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdd…cd9dbacked Ultra Prime | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1c…9bb3backed Ultra Prime | 76c | 197.6$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.39 | 159 | 56%89 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc57b…0a2bbacked LNG Esports | 50c | 194$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 113 | 39.8%45 W · 68 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee1…77fcbacked Ultra Prime | 54c | 185.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.64 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x642c…21a7backed Ultra Prime | 29c | 159.19$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.18 | 350 | 54.6%191 W · 159 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb99…dda5backed Ultra Prime | 50c | 155.91$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed LNG Esports | 48c | 137.39$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.94 | 2,495 | 47.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed LNG Esports | 71c | 126.76$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 358 | 44.4%159 W · 199 L | -15.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf8…03b2backed LNG Esports | 56c | 125$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 367 | 52%191 W · 176 L | -18.0wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e4…bf9dbacked LNG Esports | 42c | 122.43$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.42 | 675 | 52.4%354 W · 321 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x115a…98e1backed Ultra Prime | 58c | 120.81$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.81 | 167 | 62.3%104 W · 63 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Ultra Prime | 36c | 119.75$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.64 | 464 | 52.4%243 W · 221 L | +18.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked LNG Esports | 46c | 117.14$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.88 | 126 | 44.4%56 W · 70 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked Ultra Prime | 34c | 113.56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.48 | 238 | 31.5%75 W · 163 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x041e…bc83backed Ultra Prime | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c1…3e0bbacked LNG Esports | 51c | 103.74$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.79 | 636 | 46.9%298 W · 338 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e86…7932backed LNG Esports | 50c | 101.75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 611 | 50.6%309 W · 302 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0b…6583backed LNG Esports | 47c | 101.06$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 121 | 42.1%51 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6202…8872backed Ultra Prime | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 398 | 59.8%238 W · 160 L | +31.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6a…bc77backed Ultra Prime | 50c | 99.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.84 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb223…3772backed LNG Esports | 51c | 97.06$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 394 | 45.2%178 W · 216 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2afc…997cbacked LNG Esports | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 286 | 47.9%137 W · 149 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd94…6b1ebacked LNG Esports | 71c | 72.06$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.16 | 840 | 41%344 W · 496 L | -38.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed LNG Esports | 46c | 69.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 608 | 49.5%301 W · 307 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde5a…4db5backed LNG Esports | 55c | 65.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 249 | 39%97 W · 152 L | -10.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8290…d896backed LNG Esports | 55c | 65.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Ultra Prime | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 536 | 49.8%267 W · 269 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed Ultra Prime | 49c | 59.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 199 | 41.7%83 W · 116 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d8…0023backed Ultra Prime | 50c | 59.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 185 | 47%87 W · 98 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed LNG Esports | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 237 | 48.5%115 W · 122 L | -15.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed LNG Esports | 59c | 51.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 301 | 46.2%139 W · 162 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…d4e9backed Ultra Prime | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6de0…ea80backed LNG Esports | 50c | 49.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 140 | 47.9%67 W · 73 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14d3…3109backed Ultra Prime | 50c | 49.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d65…383bbacked Ultra Prime | 50c | 49.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Ultra Prime | 33c | 47.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 261 | 54.8%143 W · 118 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9e…9aa0backed LNG Esports | 51c | 46.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc508…6b56backed Ultra Prime | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f76…fa0fbacked LNG Esports | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…620cbacked Ultra Prime | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf368…cfb1backed Ultra Prime | 43c | 36.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed Ultra Prime | 49c | 31.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 236 | 43.6%103 W · 133 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed LNG Esports | 51c | 31.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 251 | 54.2%136 W · 115 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Ultra Prime | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 182 | 63.7%116 W · 66 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa485…a7d5backed Ultra Prime | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 253 | 45.8%116 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf245…746bbacked LNG Esports | 51c | 29.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 238 | 55.9%133 W · 105 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed LNG Esports | 51c | 29.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…5c9cbacked LNG Esports | 71c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 110 | 90.9%100 W · 10 L | +16.8wins | +0.15per pick | 76cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed LNG Esports | 57c | 28.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 219 | 53%116 W · 103 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Ultra Prime | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 224 | 52.7%118 W · 106 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Ultra Prime | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 1,576 | 48.4%763 W · 813 L | +17.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe245…3bc8backed LNG Esports | 51c | 24.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a5…f52ebacked LNG Esports | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 146 | 50.7%74 W · 72 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x941e…9775backed LNG Esports | 71c | 21.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 170 | 67.1%114 W · 56 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17d3…be06backed LNG Esports | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: LNG (-1.5) vs Ultra Prime (+1.5)this page
- First Blood in Game 1?LNG Esports won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- LoL: Ultra Prime vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group NirvanaLNG Esports won
- LoL: Ultra Prime vs LNG Esports - Game 1 WinnerLNG Esports won
- LoL: Ultra Prime vs LNG Esports - Game 2 WinnerUltra Prime won
- Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 26.5 in Game 2?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.