TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Ultra Prime vs LNG Esports - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
LNG Esportsof Ultra Prime, LNG Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$281,283
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$335,290

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $281,283 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 234 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfbf3…b218backed Ultra Prime26c40,292$10,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,475.8827735.7%99 W · 178 L-12.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-4.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed Ultra Prime26c33,878$8,808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,808.3951146.8%239 W · 272 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked LNG Esports74c25,107$18,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,456.6990348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed LNG Esports74c15,102$11,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,946.551,09153.8%587 W · 504 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed LNG Esports74c13,140$9,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,452.351,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked LNG Esports74c13,100$9,694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,406.3570456.4%397 W · 307 L+39.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed LNG Esports73c9,933$7,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,682.0327353.1%145 W · 128 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked Ultra Prime26c8,000$2,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,08030945.3%140 W · 169 L+1.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed Ultra Prime18c7,947$1,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,437.2885836.2%311 W · 547 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed LNG Esports74c6,692$4,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,739.8554756.9%311 W · 236 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked Ultra Prime26c6,087$1,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,577.8137640.2%151 W · 225 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa980…30a1backed Ultra Prime8c5,947$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.3444120%88 W · 353 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Ultra Prime21c5,943$1,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,248.011,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd408…e85cbacked LNG Esports76c5,923$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,422.538462%238 W · 146 L-0.4wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed LNG Esports74c5,000$3,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,319.991,43557.4%824 W · 611 L+36.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Ultra Prime27c4,389$1,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,184.9154353.8%292 W · 251 L+32.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x58ce…e206backed Ultra Prime14c4,042$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.322452.2%117 W · 107 L+14.6wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+10.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed LNG Esports73c4,010$2,924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,085.981,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed LNG Esports76c4,010$3,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$962.41,00354%542 W · 461 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7787backed Ultra Prime24c4,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96064443%277 W · 367 L-27.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe100…4d41backed Ultra Prime20c3,792$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.8713251.5%68 W · 64 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9867…ea53backed LNG Esports74c3,659$2,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$951.3413752.6%72 W · 65 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+17.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa14c…23a1backed LNG Esports73c3,460$2,528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$932.1558850.5%297 W · 291 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37bd…2a26backed LNG Esports74c3,200$2,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83264553.3%344 W · 301 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Ultra Prime25c3,200$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81190537.5%339 W · 566 L-18.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed LNG Esports74c3,024$2,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$786.131,06747%502 W · 565 L+3.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked Ultra Prime25c3,000$764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764.1166843%287 W · 381 L-29.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2f3…37f9backed Ultra Prime25c2,738$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.4915356.9%87 W · 66 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcae6…4f85backed LNG Esports80c2,709$2,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.7567276.9%517 W · 155 L+87.3wins+0.13per pick64cpaid+30.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xb589…91e3backed LNG Esports80c2,532$2,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.3351348%246 W · 267 L+25.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed LNG Esports72c2,271$1,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$635.791,15649.1%568 W · 588 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa557…6e77backed Ultra Prime27c2,100$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56724147.3%114 W · 127 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6842…20d0backed Ultra Prime30c2,099$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.811,01147.1%476 W · 535 L+21.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4fa…c84abacked Ultra Prime28c2,002$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.712466.7%16 W · 8 L+3.3wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+26.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x681b…3d79backed Ultra Prime28c2,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56017749.7%88 W · 89 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf41e…9350backed Ultra Prime30c1,998$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60011736.8%43 W · 74 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+46.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xebe7…ddf5backed LNG Esports74c1,860$1,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.125764.9%37 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71c0…13b5backed LNG Esports74c1,854$1,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.4821954.3%119 W · 100 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Ultra Prime29c1,810$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.873,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x634a…6de3backed LNG Esports70c1,714$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.38746%40 W · 47 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+22.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed LNG Esports74c1,512$1,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.071,02952.3%538 W · 491 L+27.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed LNG Esports76c1,507$1,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.6871249.2%350 W · 362 L+14.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02f0…c55dbacked Ultra Prime28c1,400$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39811330.1%34 W · 79 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf859…a183backed LNG Esports73c1,300$949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3511,21352.3%635 W · 578 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa565…0892backed LNG Esports79c1,266$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.29475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f77…3b9ebacked LNG Esports79c1,244$982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.17475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x154b…0ffbbacked LNG Esports79c1,236$976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.82475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Ultra Prime22c1,200$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26496250.1%482 W · 480 L+1.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Ultra Prime6c1,200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.71,05628.5%301 W · 755 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Ultra Prime21c1,198$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.272,90538.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L-118.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d02…b538backed LNG Esports79c1,197$945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick74cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eee…c8f9backed LNG Esports79c1,196$945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.2560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd9d…f409backed Ultra Prime19c1,158$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.1714930.9%46 W · 103 L-11.8wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-29%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbf29…da00backed LNG Esports74c1,122$831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.8521948.4%106 W · 113 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa844…83b8backed Ultra Prime26c1,111$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.7862158.8%365 W · 256 L+32.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa8e4…65e7backed Ultra Prime25c1,101$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.315044%22 W · 28 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed LNG Esports76c1,057$805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.151,31037.3%489 W · 821 L-86.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7fd6…1582backed Ultra Prime6c1,055$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.213959%23 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7553…65cabacked LNG Esports73c1,020$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.467250.9%342 W · 330 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked LNG Esports71c1,002$711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.5867552.4%354 W · 321 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed LNG Esports68c1,000$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.011,20835.8%432 W · 776 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb877…4601backed LNG Esports74c1,000$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2601,21839.9%486 W · 732 L-65.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-23.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4068…aeb1backed Ultra Prime23c1,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23015431.8%49 W · 105 L-18.7wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-33.5%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x5d0d…5960backed Ultra Prime13c900$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1186639.4%26 W · 40 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-23.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked Ultra Prime23c883.88$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,66359.5%990 W · 673 L+98.5wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf9f0…3805backed Ultra Prime24c837.54$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.453974.4%29 W · 10 L+7.1wins+0.18per pick56cpaid+27.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6f84…202ebacked Ultra Prime31c805.28$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.6495847.6%456 W · 502 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe47…2816backed Ultra Prime27c800$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2163647.2%17 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked LNG Esports74c788.3$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.961,18548.1%570 W · 615 L-2.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc6f…f0f0backed LNG Esports78c767.1$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.129846.6%139 W · 159 L-19.7wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-18.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked LNG Esports74c733$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.5860347.9%289 W · 314 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Ultra Prime14c722.31$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.591,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbde6…e8b5backed LNG Esports74c700$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18230050.3%151 W · 149 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc733…4f14backed LNG Esports74c675.68$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.686453.1%34 W · 30 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+18.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x36a0…436dbacked Ultra Prime12c642.99$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.0147738.6%184 W · 293 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed LNG Esports71c600$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1742,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed LNG Esports71c600$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1741,59946.8%748 W · 851 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba90…b283backed Ultra Prime2c600$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1216925.4%43 W · 126 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick25cpaid+15.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdec9…b8abbacked LNG Esports74c561$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.8633153.2%176 W · 155 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Ultra Prime16c556.95$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.771,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked LNG Esports78c532.5$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.596057.4%551 W · 409 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde6e…0169backed Ultra Prime24c527.65$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.6440435.1%142 W · 262 L-1.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Ultra Prime26c526.63$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.9249847.2%235 W · 263 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed LNG Esports71c520.63$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.032,15653.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9b5…f95bbacked LNG Esports72c500$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14067549%331 W · 344 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39d1…ae10backed Ultra Prime10c500$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513941%16 W · 23 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+26.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5cab…a8cfbacked LNG Esports79c499.99$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10521965.8%144 W · 75 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-5.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x08c4…e6a5backed Ultra Prime22c462.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006349.2%31 W · 32 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-16.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Ultra Prime29c440.28$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.6844335.4%157 W · 286 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfae6…ab69backed LNG Esports75c440$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11054246.3%251 W · 291 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed LNG Esports74c430.4$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.996054.2%520 W · 440 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked LNG Esports76c421.08$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.171,15568.1%786 W · 369 L+35.1wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1ef…4a40backed Ultra Prime24c414.95$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.598834.1%30 W · 58 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0de5…ab36backed Ultra Prime24c414.62$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.272759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x61a8…519dbacked LNG Esports71c404.23$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.2319653.1%104 W · 92 L+15.1wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+15.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5309…6cdebacked LNG Esports72c400$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.156246.8%29 W · 33 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93ba…afdabacked Ultra Prime5c399.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2017616.5%29 W · 147 L-11.9wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-36.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6bfd…5984backed Ultra Prime5c360$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.24055%22 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed LNG Esports71c351.05$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.849461.3%303 W · 191 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x64a8…7bc3backed LNG Esports78c350$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7747953.2%255 W · 224 L-26.7wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.