Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 85°F or below on June 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf447966268aca72197a9654aaea21bc69324b1491b4a7bb325c343e987333b75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,890
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,890 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 9c | 840.46$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.62 | 618 | 23.8%147 W · 471 L | -20.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 37c | 746.74$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.4 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 37c | 402.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed No | 4c | 400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 14c | 375.97$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.59 | 458 | 62%284 W · 174 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 23c | 353.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.33 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed No | 9c | 343.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 270 | 44.4%120 W · 150 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 11c | 291.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 4,435 | 65.2%2,891 W · 1,544 L | +18.7wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 16c | 279.54$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.96 | 1,235 | 59.7%737 W · 498 L | +35.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 22c | 273.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.43 | 5,478 | 56%3,069 W · 2,409 L | -123.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 73c | 265.69$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.6 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 6c | 258.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 1,566 | 16.3%255 W · 1,311 L | +22.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc317…a731backed No | 8c | 241.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3a…d3e3backed No | 43c | 233.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.8 | 59 | 84.7%50 W · 9 L | +11.2wins | +0.19per pick | 66cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x99d6…9fcabacked No | 10c | 217.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 67c | 214.47$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.05 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3288…b8cebacked No | 7c | 182.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 7c | 170.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8de…e8a1backed No | 14c | 165.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 36c | 147.19$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.39 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 11c | 143.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 2,140 | 53.2%1,139 W · 1,001 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…9899backed Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 23c | 136.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 200 | 48%96 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 70c | 133.99$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.78 | 1,829 | 42.6%780 W · 1,049 L | +51.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 17c | 131.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 719 | 42%302 W · 417 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…4425backed No | 32c | 124.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 75 | 66.7%50 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 10c | 114.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 934 | 61.8%577 W · 357 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 64c | 114$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 482 | 45.9%221 W · 261 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 79c | 109.74$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 65c | 106$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes | 67c | 86.27$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 252 | 75.8%191 W · 61 L | +25.0wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 71c | 83.12$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x715e…ee36backed Yes | 25c | 78.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.64 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 22c | 78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 5,795 | 60%3,479 W · 2,316 L | -110.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b6…94b8backed Yes | 43c | 77.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.19 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 29c | 73.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 6,857 | 53.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L | +417.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 75c | 67.81$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 512 | 47.1%241 W · 271 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 75c | 64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 61c | 64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 541 | 39.2%212 W · 329 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 69c | 60.4$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 4,665 | 26.6%1,242 W · 3,423 L | +65.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 47c | 59.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 54c | 51.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 71c | 50.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f0…5cd7backed No | 24c | 45.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 70c | 43.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…f8b0backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No | 32c | 39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 106 | 71.7%76 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 68c | 34.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 3,050 | 40.5%1,235 W · 1,815 L | -121.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 37c | 27.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf368…cfb1backed Yes | 59c | 25.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f90…b54abacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked Yes | 68c | 18.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked Yes | 68c | 16.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 71c | 14.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 85°F or below on June 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.