Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7dd1e5faa71ee208ad40114e26014414f4ebd401985d82a1b9bb300dab4393b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,657
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,657 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 2c | 948.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…2c8bbacked Yes | 74c | 598.65$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.84 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 78c | 396.42$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.33 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 373.45$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.36 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 18c | 363.33$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.37 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 66c | 313.79$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.42 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb541…169dbacked No | 43c | 275.59$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.21 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 49c | 262.23$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.66 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 34c | 261.94$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.18 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 232.68$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 25c | 218.81$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.72 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 64c | 216.66$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.67 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 79c | 204.89$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.13 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 53c | 172.92$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.89 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked Yes | 21c | 168.79$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 78c | 167.56$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.78 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 23c | 128.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 26c | 123.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.98 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 35c | 117.4$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 15c | 113.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 74c | 107.69$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.75 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 27c | 105.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 31c | 101.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.36 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.3 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1048…e362backed No | 29c | 99.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +62%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 97.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.37 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 74c | 97.2$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.79 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 97$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 74c | 96.32$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.42 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6734…c3d2backed No | 17c | 94.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 43c | 90.64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.94 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 25c | 89.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 18c | 88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.16 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8b…d33ebacked No | 49c | 87.77$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c35…2babbacked Yes | 24c | 82.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.93 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7630…789dbacked No | 26c | 82.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +8.9wins | +0.27per pick | 37cpaid | +144.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 44c | 80.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 68c | 72.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 69c | 72.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 29c | 71.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 25c | 71.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 31c | 70.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 70$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c7…c6bdbacked No | 75c | 69.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.39 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 59c | 69.44$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 49c | 62.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 36c | 57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 53.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 26c | 52.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 24c | 51.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf949…80e0backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed0…25afbacked Yes | 43c | 46.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 48c | 46.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 57c | 43.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 58c | 43.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…ac1ebacked Yes | 26c | 42.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x64f2…c2a5backed No | 77c | 41.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e72…bd5dbacked Yes | 58c | 37.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 38c | 36.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 76c | 36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28fe…1640backed Yes | 56c | 35.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +7.3wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 77c | 34.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7a…73c0backed No | 38c | 34.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 65c | 30.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e48…22ecbacked Yes | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 64c | 28.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 77c | 27.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…5865backed No | 77c | 25.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 69 | 81.2%56 W · 13 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 72c | 24.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 50c | 23.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 68c | 22.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 77c | 19.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…e40ebacked No | 77c | 18.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 77c | 17.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf368…cfb1backed No | 77c | 16.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 77c | 13.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked No | 77c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C or higher on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.