TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6734…c3d2

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
29
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Movies, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Movies at 52 out of 100; worst Weather at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT1118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.24per pick42cpaid-61.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Weather — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C or higher on May 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.93
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on May 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.91
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C or below on May 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.42
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+125.9%+$20.14
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.43
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on May 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.61
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on May 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+102%+$16.16
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.76
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on May 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
All 11 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 2, 2025, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Nuggets vs. Clippersbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Timberwolves vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$150
Pistons vs. Knicksbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+203%+$406.06
Rockets vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$309Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$189.53
All 4 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Trump visit China by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 2 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoorbacked Tate · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$100
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+74.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+74.7%+$67.28
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google have the top AI model on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$33.33
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$10.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved May 8, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT+43.7%+$43.66
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$7.03
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.