Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefdc4947730241f04b885948b541be398667eb95c41626058642532a61c06159
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,065
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,065 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 50c | 725.22$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.47 | 1,464 | 58.5%857 W · 607 L | +71.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked Yes | 50c | 549.98$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.99 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 22c | 438.93$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.62 | 4,665 | 26.6%1,242 W · 3,423 L | +65.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 367.06$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 13c | 308.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed Yes | 67c | 242.1$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.59 | 458 | 62%284 W · 174 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 38c | 228.89$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.57 | 550 | 25.3%139 W · 411 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…9d7bbacked Yes | 64c | 161.48$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.06 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 156.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 7,564 | 37.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L | +95.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed No | 61c | 146.4$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.07 | 575 | 54.3%312 W · 263 L | +16.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 22c | 124.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xef5e…b385backed No | 50c | 124.23$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.86 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 22c | 116.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 23c | 108$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 1,457 | 34.8%507 W · 950 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 15c | 101.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 77c | 85.1$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 18c | 74.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 70.13$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 46c | 69.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 27c | 68.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 48c | 61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 4,616 | 58.3%2,689 W · 1,927 L | -114.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc70a…d065backed Yes | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 78c | 57.44$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 47c | 53.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 65c | 53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 3,028 | 31.3%949 W · 2,079 L | +40.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 74c | 46.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87d8…ccf3backed Yes | 50c | 43.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 75c | 43.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3a…78d6backed Yes | 54c | 37.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 77c | 36.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked Yes | 57c | 35.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 80c | 33.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 45c | 32.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6734…c3d2backed No | 50c | 31.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 3,980 | 47.3%1,884 W · 2,096 L | +71.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 71c | 28.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 23.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 21.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 5,161 | 68.3%3,525 W · 1,636 L | +71.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c08…724fbacked No | 76c | 20.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 60 | 73.3%44 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…7d37backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 68 | 67.6%46 W · 22 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 931 | 44.9%418 W · 513 L | +17.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 74c | 19.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 55c | 18.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd5…ebdcbacked No | 78c | 15.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 64 | 81.3%52 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 80c | 12.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.64 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 84°F or higher on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on May 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.