Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x261e3ad0426b238da8f06c75f9c2c18a1be1bcf7538c41bae6460e6ee04f5860
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,459
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 30c | 389.95$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.23 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 74c | 342.79$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.44 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 317.53$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.58 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 232.54$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.81 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 70c | 177.28$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.17 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 35c | 150.92$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.98 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 77c | 130.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 42c | 124.87$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.15 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 121.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.87 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 29c | 121.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.15 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 34c | 115.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 77c | 109.79$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.7 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 30c | 99.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.96 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 74c | 97.38$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.15 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70cb…f527backed Yes | 28c | 84.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.7 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 43c | 81.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 77c | 80.41$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.98 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 34c | 79.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.88 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 37c | 73.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 65c | 71.72$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.39 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 71c | 70.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 26c | 68.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.52 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 75c | 64.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 70c | 63.62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 21c | 61.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.47 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 53.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.92 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 39c | 52.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 39c | 51.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.55 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 68c | 46.83$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 73c | 46.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 44.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed Yes | 26c | 43.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 72c | 42.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 70c | 41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddfa…014fbacked No | 45c | 36.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 67c | 33.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 72c | 32.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 65c | 29.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c08…724fbacked No | 70c | 27.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 60 | 73.3%44 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…922ebacked No | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 76c | 24.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 22.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 67c | 21.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d6…aa50backed No | 64c | 19.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 67cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 19.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6192…48efbacked Yes | 67c | 18.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecd5…ebdcbacked No | 72c | 16.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 64 | 81.3%52 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 84°F or higher on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.