Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67ce5316adcbce676580cfc6fbff8d3eb4f81d9e10bb786c2b074de9c3ea7a25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,346
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,935
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,346 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ce1…bf19backed Yes | 79c | 934.16$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.68 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -5.3wins | -0.22per pick | 64cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 19c | 257.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 12c | 210.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 15c | 201.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 37c | 153.43$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.05 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 34c | 145.55$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 81.57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…90d9backed Yes | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fc…d98abacked Yes | 80c | 62.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75a1…6afbbacked Yes | 63c | 62.68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 47.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 33c | 47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6734…c3d2backed No | 37c | 40.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 34c | 38.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…bdedbacked No | 32c | 36.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 55c | 34.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa29d…3d7bbacked Yes | 30c | 32.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 31.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87cc…da77backed Yes | 42c | 30.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 60c | 24.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 59c | 22.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58d6…49b0backed Yes | 57c | 22.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 75c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.