Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8ebc74c8f377098e71549fe277e7ae6096c8a88f2bc850a1a889544f2bf8393
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,721
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,721 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9060…790bbacked Yes | 26c | 6,215$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,619.82 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb74…9f08backed Yes | 3c | 3,001$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.07 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 36c | 1,503$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.23 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked Yes | 58c | 1,150$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed No | 47c | 1,112$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.66 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f61…8554backed No | 46c | 1,107$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.06 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c91…6d1fbacked Yes | 58c | 1,003$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…9816backed Yes | 54c | 760.86$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.1 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 43c | 700$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked Yes | 57c | 699.99$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed Yes | 5c | 685.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Yes | 2c | 621.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6995…c072backed Yes | 63c | 601.07$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4577…f436backed No | 68c | 567$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.14 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed No | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed No | 43c | 378.57$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa04…66e7backed Yes | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked Yes | 60c | 279.52$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.49 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…1f2cbacked No | 77c | 246.62$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 60cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae20…f1cfbacked Yes | 63c | 236.53$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 219.38$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.02 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 37c | 204.2$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.97 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed No | 41c | 198.82$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd32…9563backed Yes | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f2…bbebbacked Yes | 56c | 177.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7b…bd5dbacked Yes | 55c | 172.87$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.08 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 41c | 170.64$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.92 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41a4…4187backed No | 40c | 168.75$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.25 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76c9…3222backed No | 65c | 154.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.52 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 43c | 146.88$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.72 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x633b…2c2ebacked Yes | 56c | 142.44$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0955…e141backed No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +113.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 111.77$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 50c | 100.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked Yes | 55c | 93.56$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.73 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 39c | 90$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 52c | 88.01$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.29 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb96…9545backed No | 21c | 85.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.54 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43de…74b9backed Yes | 58c | 84.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb326…d18bbacked No | 43c | 70$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e4…ca09backed No | 51c | 68.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 41c | 67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 35c | 66.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…0c9abacked No | 44c | 64.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.64 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +5.5wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x17a7…bc3ebacked Yes | 52c | 64.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…57c8backed Yes | 65c | 63.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed No | 52c | 54.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff36…d5b7backed No | 54c | 53.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x911b…a7febacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…f109backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 30c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked No | 42c | 32.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a69…228fbacked Yes | 60c | 31.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52fd…2ab7backed No | 42c | 30.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +46%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6734…c3d2backed Yes | 65c | 30.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a32…215cbacked Yes | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…b64dbacked No | 45c | 29.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 51c | 29.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4414…518abacked Yes | 54c | 29.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…3c00backed Yes | 63c | 25.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 45c | 24.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 65c | 21.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x637d…3546backed Yes | 56c | 20.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…789cbacked Yes | 68c | 20.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…e122backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe169…5568backed Yes | 58c | 17.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?this page
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?Yes won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.