Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b1c9a55cbd399ea2cfa1b7f2b9ea2780c92a20d9144d4c84cfca6f8b5130455
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,327
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,563
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,327 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 23c | 857.76$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.23 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb96…9545backed No | 2c | 827.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed Yes | 71c | 591.18$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.68 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 15c | 546.39$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.13 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd63a…9603backed Yes | 78c | 386.57$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.57 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 286.78$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…1f2cbacked Yes | 73c | 260.21$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.31 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 60cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73ab…5468backed Yes | 77c | 234.3$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.3 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 12c | 171.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff36…d5b7backed No | 68c | 170.47$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.76 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20fb…e5fabacked Yes | 48c | 166.77$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.72 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…562ebacked No | 42c | 142.28$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -64%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 13c | 134.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae20…f1cfbacked Yes | 75c | 133.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 27c | 122.94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 22c | 121.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 20c | 108.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 36cpaid | +99.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x565e…875dbacked Yes | 70c | 95.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +7.0wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4577…f436backed Yes | 54c | 90.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.75 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9611…1c01backed Yes | 36c | 64.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +178.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x911b…a7febacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…3c00backed No | 71c | 49.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb74…9f08backed Yes | 67c | 47.15$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b5…c3bcbacked Yes | 47c | 42.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 29c | 40.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 30c | 36.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 74 | 68.9%51 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 42c | 29.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…57c8backed No | 65c | 27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddf4…ad79backed Yes | 76c | 26.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 42c | 26.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 47c | 26.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 61c | 24.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8d…4b6fbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?this page
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?No won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.