TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd63a…9603

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
73
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Crypto Milestones, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Crypto Milestones at 53 out of 100; worst NBA at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2026, EDT4650%23 W · 23 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 46 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Knicks (-2.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$283Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+106.3%+$301.1
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.77
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 207.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+37%+$22.19
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$122.49
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 198.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$537Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$219.39
Spurs vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$411Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$410.89
Timberwolves vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$682Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$192.4
Spread: Thunder (-10.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$195Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$194.72
Thunder vs. Lakersbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$268Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$80.12
Timberwolves vs. Nuggetsbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$69.74
Bulls vs. Wizardsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$352Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$151.04
1H Spread: Bulls (-3.5)backed Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$337Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$337.31
Spread: Spurs (-3.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$30.64
Lakers vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$3.42
Spread: Spurs (-14.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.1
Pacers vs. Bullsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$121.6
Spread: Clippers (-4.5)backed Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.21
Hornets vs. Nets: O/U 217.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.91
Spread: Heat (-9.5)backed Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$12.01
Thunder vs. Celticsbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.68
Raptors vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$7.78
Knicks vs. Nets: O/U 216.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+75.3%+$15.05
Spread: Knicks (-17.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Knicks vs. Nets: O/U 214.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Suns vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+25%+$23.7
Showing 25 of 46 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-25.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$866Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$371.29
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$513Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$513.09
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$2,167Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+42.1%+$911.79
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$2,236Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+59.9%+$1,338.66
Spread: Spain (-1.5)backed Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$4,197Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,197.32
Spread: Spain (-2.5)backed Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$4,206Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,205.9
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$2,550Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$1,497.78
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,781Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$800.35
All 10 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on May 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on May 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+28.9%+$86.57
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+103.7%+$207.38
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or higher on March 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.87
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or higher on March 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.48
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or higher on March 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+157.7%+$31.54
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+26.4%+$16.18
All 8 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+64.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+38.5%+$77
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 February 9-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+89.8%+$10.9
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$272Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+61.6%+$167.89
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Georgia Bulldogs vs. Missouri Tigersbacked Georgia Bulldogs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+54%+$9.21
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 26, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Feb 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Kickoff Playoffsbacked EDward Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$358Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$357.85
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jiujiang: Fajing Sun vs Tristan Schoolkatebacked Tristan Schoolkate · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.