TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Lakers vs. Thunder

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thunderof Lakers, Thunder
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,658,783
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,803,971

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,658,783 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,449 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Lakers26c548,483$143,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143,353.2636549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Thunder74c448,611$332,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116,111.2172648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Thunder76c359,054$271,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87,296.466248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f2f…2ca8backed Lakers24c296,139$69,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69,728.259745.4%44 W · 53 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbedb…3b26backed Lakers11c149,690$16,597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,596.6616346.6%76 W · 87 L-0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x691f…5e69backed Lakers3c134,546$4,534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,534.076355.6%35 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c15…9a45backed Thunder77c127,056$97,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,507.2211137.8%42 W · 69 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1961…c461backed Thunder80c120,000$95,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,159.948750.6%44 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0767…36b0backed Thunder77c118,344$91,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,219.128154.3%44 W · 37 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+19.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9410…ffcdbacked Lakers1c100,015$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.044030%12 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb6f…e0ddbacked Lakers16c98,707$15,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,909.16744.8%30 W · 37 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Thunder77c63,751$49,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,677.4637355%205 W · 168 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3eeb…c387backed Lakers23c60,700$14,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,186.9420454.9%112 W · 92 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f28…266ebacked Thunder75c52,505$39,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,126.223145.2%14 W · 17 L-4.6wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-25.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2580…1d56backed Lakers24c48,211$11,571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,570.5311737.6%44 W · 73 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x05e1…85a2backed Lakers3c47,780$1,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,430.2932347.1%152 W · 171 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c36…7854backed Thunder76c34,496$26,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,279.042263.6%14 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2628…757bbacked Lakers1c32,974$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.973912.8%5 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-59.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6368…6dc8backed Lakers24c32,800$7,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,871.8910352.4%54 W · 49 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-11.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0979…8d9bbacked Lakers24c29,825$7,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,15820352.7%107 W · 96 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6165…db3cbacked Thunder77c25,616$19,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,891.588662.8%54 W · 32 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Thunder76c25,144$19,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,092.8228554%154 W · 131 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb4e…ff53backed Lakers21c23,732$5,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,013.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…e0eebacked Lakers0c22,344$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.014129.3%12 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+32.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Thunder76c21,707$16,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,229.174,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Thunder75c20,386$15,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,081.579,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Lakers24c20,000$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,799.9634456.7%195 W · 149 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x68ca…9f73backed Thunder72c19,909$14,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,641.8932540.3%131 W · 194 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25cc…9297backed Lakers24c19,703$4,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,728.6616942%71 W · 98 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f3a…7067backed Thunder77c19,212$14,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,418.692100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+49.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x995e…13aebacked Lakers7c18,677$1,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,322.59850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+84.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Lakers24c18,028$4,383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,382.9261851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Lakers17c16,135$2,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,771.371,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46bc…2d14backed Lakers25c15,972$3,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,99318931.2%59 W · 130 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x033d…fd1ebacked Lakers15c15,413$2,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,343.1310252%53 W · 49 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Thunder76c15,290$11,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,733.2287750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd864…497ebacked Lakers25c15,030$3,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,683.654042.5%17 W · 23 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+20.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Lakers5c13,445$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.1682442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed Lakers18c12,999$2,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,281.279336.6%34 W · 59 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Lakers23c12,520$2,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,879.511,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Lakers10c12,287$1,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,285.483039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf472…a262backed Lakers20c11,711$2,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,333.591417.8%11 W · 130 L-7.8wins-0.06per pick13cpaid-46.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xca5a…5d29backed Lakers23c11,470$2,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,638.111428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-41.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa75…f082backed Lakers25c11,460$2,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8651729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-35.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Thunder75c11,400$8,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,867.0943438.5%167 W · 267 L-1.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Lakers20c11,020$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,160.4235251.1%180 W · 172 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf2b…2cd8backed Lakers7c10,471$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.628560%51 W · 34 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd59d…8e9fbacked Thunder76c10,469$7,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,488.091136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-31.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Lakers25c10,314$2,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,529.0338143%164 W · 217 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x893b…a860backed Lakers7c10,185$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.76185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8980…d4f4backed Lakers23c10,050$2,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,311.521951.1%112 W · 107 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7960…b94fbacked Lakers24c10,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40019751.8%102 W · 95 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Lakers27c10,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7006144.3%27 W · 34 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5798…ab44backed Thunder76c10,000$7,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,40015740.8%64 W · 93 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x445f…07d4backed Lakers24c10,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,399.992050%10 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb7a6…89b2backed Thunder76c10,000$7,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,399.9914244.4%63 W · 79 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5124…91bbbacked Lakers10c10,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.9935444.6%158 W · 196 L+1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f2f…be86backed Thunder76c9,797$7,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,351.2513357.9%77 W · 56 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c0e…c9b3backed Lakers9c9,623$872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$871.7940%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x77d3…f4d6backed Thunder71c9,416$6,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,728.0829250%146 W · 146 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Thunder74c9,142$6,765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,376.8224650%123 W · 123 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Lakers2c9,110$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.665213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd937…d226backed Thunder76c9,062$6,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,174.971643.8%7 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick31cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Thunder75c8,974$6,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,260.4986641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb167…039dbacked Lakers0c8,226$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.13923.1%9 W · 30 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick16cpaid-11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d03…9e27backed Lakers24c8,199$1,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,967.858532.9%28 W · 57 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc31…4a51backed Thunder76c8,183$6,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,963.8813063.8%83 W · 47 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e98…3a8abacked Lakers12c8,049$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984.52416.7%4 W · 20 L-3.7wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-71%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x65d6…6d6bbacked Lakers24c7,953$1,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,908.812844.5%57 W · 71 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9412…b9ebbacked Lakers24c7,953$1,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,908.870%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Lakers24c7,871$1,891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,891.062,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Thunder79c7,848$6,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,678.7320744%91 W · 116 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x077c…76babacked Thunder77c7,739$5,959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,779.951353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24b3…a5a4backed Lakers25c7,640$1,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,91011249.1%55 W · 57 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4084…357abacked Lakers24c7,536$1,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,808.592055%11 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Lakers27c7,500$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.9795641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed Lakers16c7,491$1,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,198.566841.2%28 W · 40 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaff3…6eccbacked Lakers2c7,457$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.2533139.3%130 W · 201 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Lakers0c7,353$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.718820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a2…14b8backed Lakers24c7,158$1,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,717.9210949.5%54 W · 55 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a84…ffbbbacked Lakers25c6,704$1,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,675.959330.1%28 W · 65 L-9.9wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-24.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x046c…8ca3backed Lakers24c6,500$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,559.999330.1%28 W · 65 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2f5…3092backed Lakers25c6,494$1,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,623.51844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xab72…0888backed Lakers25c6,165$1,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,541.243740.5%15 W · 22 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-9.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3dd1…2812backed Lakers9c6,157$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.086339.7%25 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed Lakers30c6,009$1,813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,812.8521350.7%108 W · 105 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e59…307dbacked Lakers24c5,965$1,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,431.68859.1%52 W · 36 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Thunder76c5,931$4,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,411.9157950.1%290 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43be…5000backed Thunder77c5,917$4,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,360.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cc1…39e9backed Lakers25c5,730$1,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,432.520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcaf9…c81bbacked Lakers25c5,705$1,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,432.6815442.2%65 W · 89 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+19.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0306…dcf6backed Lakers2c5,704$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.569839.8%39 W · 59 L-12.3wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-28.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Lakers17c5,324$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$888.243,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Lakers16c5,289$851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851.178,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed Lakers15c5,271$791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$790.6511335.4%40 W · 73 L-8.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0372…3517backed Lakers24c5,170$1,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,240.72450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1895…efd2backed Lakers21c5,146$1,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,102.69346.2%43 W · 50 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…2ab2backed Thunder77c5,123$3,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,178.32977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.26per pick52cpaid+303.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Thunder72c5,067$3,626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,441.4539349.1%193 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ad3…fb0fbacked Lakers25c5,023$1,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,255.833324.2%8 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-45.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.