NBA · resolved market
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3e75d9b97bbf0adf7b3891c63bff256d1df7d7cf25a4dd22e0ad09c85559d24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,323
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,406
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,323 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 61c | 4,473$2,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,743.34 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdec4…b675backed Under | 44c | 4,416$1,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,961.98 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 56c | 3,686$2,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,624.24 | 342 | 55.6%190 W · 152 L | +28.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +36%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82ff…f0c4backed Under | 42c | 3,228$1,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,365.03 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d6f…7135backed Under | 41c | 3,176$1,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,294.69 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 49c | 2,622$1,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,336.89 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Under | 44c | 2,063$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.95 | 288 | 38.2%110 W · 178 L | -17.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 62c | 1,329$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.26 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 20c | 1,116$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.56 | 522 | 30.3%158 W · 364 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…1992backed Under | 4c | 931$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Under | 26c | 823.1$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.66 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa900…5acebacked Under | 9c | 750$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00ce…3f01backed Under | 51c | 560$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.6 | 321 | 51.7%166 W · 155 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Under | 50c | 519.92$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.96 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb18d…3464backed Under | 49c | 437.1$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.66 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeef3…0547backed Under | 50c | 388$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 255 | 50.2%128 W · 127 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Under | 9c | 379.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 404 | 40.1%162 W · 242 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 62c | 356.42$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.96 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Under | 44c | 332.96$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.93 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Under | 7c | 310$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Under | 42c | 249.98$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.99 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 48c | 246.95$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.53 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Under | 46c | 210.35$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.76 | 311 | 51.1%159 W · 152 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 12c | 198.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 557 | 51.9%289 W · 268 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30b9…9b83backed Under | 55c | 194.55$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.53 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed Under | 53c | 183.54$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.18 | 96 | 54.2%52 W · 44 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Under | 35c | 155$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.87 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 50c | 153.17$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.26 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6bb…6b39backed Under | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb98d…c479backed Under | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 25c | 139.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 377 | 53.8%203 W · 174 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a22…be4bbacked Over | 56c | 127.49$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd312…4a63backed Under | 32c | 123.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.32 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Under | 50c | 118.82$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.16 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Under | 19c | 117.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 118 | 26.3%31 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd790…a24ebacked Over | 50c | 109.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +9.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbaea…4bbfbacked Under | 28c | 109.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 405 | 41%166 W · 239 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 53c | 105.41$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.62 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e2…388ebacked Under | 49c | 99.43$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.46 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f49…fec0backed Over | 58c | 96.81$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.66 | 378 | 48.7%184 W · 194 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 22c | 95.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a33…9a46backed Over | 68c | 92.88$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c6…9211backed Over | 52c | 91.37$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.86 | 148 | 47.3%70 W · 78 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Under | 36c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 455 | 44.8%204 W · 251 L | +21.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8038…8b15backed Under | 37c | 69.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 28c | 64.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 361 | 54.8%198 W · 163 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4999…dea5backed Over | 77c | 57.23$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d7…d31abacked Under | 24c | 52.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 216 | 40.3%87 W · 129 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb855…c1bebacked Under | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 520 | 53.3%277 W · 243 L | +29.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…b81bbacked Under | 52c | 46.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 49c | 45.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 55c | 43.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 274 | 63.5%174 W · 100 L | +34.8wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Over | 69c | 42.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 142 | 64.8%92 W · 50 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e02…738bbacked Under | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 57c | 38.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x114d…3b5fbacked Over | 60c | 38.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…7401backed Under | 37c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 249 | 36.9%92 W · 157 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe44e…c6b8backed Under | 39c | 31.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec2…e905backed Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x358a…9eccbacked Under | 49c | 24.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc539…5ec2backed Under | 46c | 23.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05e…180bbacked Over | 44c | 22.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Over | 73c | 19.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 331 | 59.2%196 W · 135 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- Ajay Mitchell: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Lakers vs. ThunderThunder won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 226.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 229.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 230.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 231.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5Over won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 16.5No won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Luka Dončić: Points O/U 32.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 30.5No won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.