TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$67,085
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$69,335

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,085 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Under21c16,697$3,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,550.091,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over78c12,426$9,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,733.622,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb915…8da5backed Over55c9,981$5,534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,446.610459.6%62 W · 42 L+8.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+23%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under46c3,750$1,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,713.589,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under43c3,678$1,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,577.883,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Over53c3,121$1,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,466.6558951.3%302 W · 287 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under46c2,650$1,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,212.164,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6323…9feebacked Under47c2,608$1,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,225.5514441%59 W · 85 L-12.8wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-15.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Under49c2,086$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,023.1531046.8%145 W · 165 L+1.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over78c2,032$1,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.632,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked Under44c1,700$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.988445.2%38 W · 46 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b50…7b56backed Under47c1,669$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.43520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-61.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0176…910ebacked Over65c1,517$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.2260444.2%267 W · 337 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked Under16c1,118$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.0919246.4%89 W · 103 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Under41c999.99$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.991,25948.7%613 W · 646 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over54c992.81$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.796,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed Over54c901.72$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.5334953%185 W · 164 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Under34c788.27$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.620638.3%79 W · 127 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under9c774.35$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.118,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under45c761.96$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.345,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over54c745.46$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.9259250.2%297 W · 295 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Over54c719.18$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.990650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Over54c712.21$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.7171654.1%387 W · 329 L+21.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfce1…4f4cbacked Over53c640.37$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.3719550.8%99 W · 96 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ee7…4c1abacked Over53c636.33$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.5114852.7%78 W · 70 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94d4…18f9backed Over52c587.36$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.844654.3%25 W · 21 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Over54c574.41$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.691,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Over54c558.69$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.8881349.4%402 W · 411 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Under48c467.67$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.531,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed Over59c442.32$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.5521350.7%108 W · 105 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Over52c428.47$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.2856447.9%270 W · 294 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8900…a444backed Over54c421.04$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.747751.9%40 W · 37 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Under47c418.26$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.5871449.3%352 W · 362 L+2.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c50…2de6backed Under45c414.84$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.6816845.2%76 W · 92 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xddc4…0270backed Over72c413.1$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.5927745.8%127 W · 150 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Over52c409.02$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.331,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over59c394.9$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.124,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed Under46c378.68$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.951,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x19a6…fccfbacked Over64c337.61$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.541145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-25.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a8f…5259backed Under47c305.95$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.810943.1%47 W · 62 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2cec…5326backed Under45c300$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13468645.5%312 W · 374 L-22.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under44c296.29$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.371,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over78c296.04$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.131,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcfb5…f5ecbacked Under34c268.26$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.0122048.6%107 W · 113 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Over78c258.34$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.4917946.4%83 W · 96 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2630…e941backed Over53c223.51$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.0542845.1%193 W · 235 L-15.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7793…33a6backed Under45c216.12$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9129344.4%130 W · 163 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef86…5afcbacked Under43c214.41$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.213352.6%70 W · 63 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8632…4696backed Under45c206.01$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.755347.9%265 W · 288 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa975…42eebacked Over52c186.77$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.6553348.4%258 W · 275 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a3…04bebacked Over52c186.77$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.6535052.6%184 W · 166 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b8f…f31bbacked Over52c186.77$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.6514640.4%59 W · 87 L-9.5wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-20.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Over52c186.77$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.6551647.5%245 W · 271 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd68e…8048backed Over69c177.97$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.1710764.5%69 W · 38 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-4.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked Under47c174.61$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.0616450%82 W · 82 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b6c…9a83backed Under47c167.29$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.634641.3%19 W · 27 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over50c161.55$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.786547.7%31 W · 34 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6df…588cbacked Under43c151.63$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.222351.6%115 W · 108 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Under36c150.15$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.051,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Under41c150$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.544740.7%182 W · 265 L-27.5wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb3cb…9b76backed Under47c146.11$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.382937.9%11 W · 18 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-21.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Under17c137.31$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.731,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d24…9c89backed Under42c135$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.718744.4%83 W · 104 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Over68c132.39$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.6677549.2%381 W · 394 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under35c128.09$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.273,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd208…cbcdbacked Over52c111.72$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.5815252.6%80 W · 72 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a53…074abacked Over56c110.26$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.515448.1%26 W · 28 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd84b…0df3backed Under45c109.32$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.1914647.9%70 W · 76 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacdf…2b45backed Under45c107.44$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.353545.7%16 W · 19 L-4.3wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-24.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x86f3…685cbacked Over60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4012558.4%73 W · 52 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61ca…a1b4backed Over63c97.78$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.183531.4%11 W · 24 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-43.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb0cb…85babacked Over61c96.73$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.7252242.7%223 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x776c…8863backed Under45c96.7$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.523151.6%16 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed Under43c94.89$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5196956.3%546 W · 423 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x654f…61eebacked Over55c94.82$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.671741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf421…2e3abacked Over52c93.38$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.827248.6%35 W · 37 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under46c92.18$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.941,27747.2%603 W · 674 L-3.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f28…d173backed Over73c91$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5715562.6%97 W · 58 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x387b…fd56backed Over53c89.16$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.716145.9%28 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2185…b40cbacked Under42c88.8$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.315650.6%79 W · 77 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9f5…0688backed Over55c87.57$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.419845.9%45 W · 53 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa15f…ad19backed Over56c86.93$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.259854.1%53 W · 45 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a89…76ecbacked Over56c86.93$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.251464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+24.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Over50c79.99$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.991,66150.3%836 W · 825 L-14.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Under45c79.35$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7160945.8%279 W · 330 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd3b…cea6backed Over50c77.6$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.87565.3%49 W · 26 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd1d9…5955backed Over55c77.46$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.056144.3%27 W · 34 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed Under49c76.69$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5836153.5%193 W · 168 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x015d…7bc7backed Over53c74.04$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.86553.8%35 W · 30 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac1a…813ebacked Under46c69.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.217250.6%87 W · 85 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Under42c69.98$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3982440.4%333 W · 491 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec8d…dd71backed Over59c64.28$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.3510256.9%58 W · 44 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6859…f7c2backed Over65c60.25$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.092050%10 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-24.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Under32c60.23$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.271,03647.6%493 W · 543 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Under41c54.56$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6295049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Over58c51.06$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.4593145.8%426 W · 505 L-25.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x990a…a9cebacked Under47c47.67$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.419346.2%43 W · 50 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Over57c47.56$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4549249.8%245 W · 247 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06e7…3acabacked Over52c46.69$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4157051.9%296 W · 274 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Under43c46.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9336749.6%182 W · 185 L+1.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.