TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 120.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,636
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,694

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,636 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Over46c1,184$545 inWon+$639.15,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55bb…bc01backed Under54c1,136$614 inLost-$613.62857.1%16 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbce5…02f1backed Under47c1,060$498 inLost-$498.218651.6%96 W · 90 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b2f…3531backed Over53c1,030$546 inWon+$484.154351.2%22 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Under48c364.76$175 inLost-$175.092,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0fb…ec4fbacked Over52c346.14$180 inWon+$166.156860.3%41 W · 27 L+9.5wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+33.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xee60…6902backed Over50c110$55 inWon+$5537665.4%246 W · 130 L+62.0wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+31.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x3b24…11efbacked Under50c106.7$53 inLost-$53.3516664.5%107 W · 59 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Over51c87.34$44 inWon+$42.9677549.2%381 W · 394 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Under44c85.46$38 inLost-$37.8720638.3%79 W · 127 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe037…8a91backed Under47c31.09$15 inLost-$14.526947.8%33 W · 36 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00b7…5b93backed Over56c29.7$17 inWon+$13.0725651.6%132 W · 124 L+0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…ba2cbacked Over45c23.26$10 inWon+$12.7926957.2%154 W · 115 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6275…4e76backed Over52c22.59$12 inWon+$10.922254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.