NBA · resolved market
Luka Dončić: Points O/U 32.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x155015e81dfffa86de7b4e56d8bbc952f73175955ece3e0f59dfe74029044506
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,256
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,713
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,256 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7879…3653backed Yes | 51c | 3,860$1,971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,971.33 | 159 | 52.8%84 W · 75 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 51c | 3,520$1,801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,718.53 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Yes | 47c | 1,600$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.99 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab72…0888backed Yes | 49c | 1,464$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.87 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed No | 46c | 1,407$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.49 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked No | 50c | 1,356$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.03 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eed…85a9backed No | 50c | 1,262$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.82 | 314 | 55.1%173 W · 141 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafd4…7e61backed No | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed No | 54c | 879.19$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.16 | 430 | 52.3%225 W · 205 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed No | 55c | 799.2$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.88 | 657 | 62.3%409 W · 248 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…838fbacked Yes | 48c | 583.47$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.07 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64cd…0718backed Yes | 51c | 572.72$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 51c | 522.43$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.95 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…a8e0backed Yes | 44c | 499.99$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed No | 56c | 464.08$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.19 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 44c | 463.14$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.78 | 206 | 38.3%79 W · 127 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2696…c031backed Yes | 46c | 335$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.1 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x096a…0074backed No | 56c | 311.55$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.08 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfd…d3c1backed No | 56c | 295.56$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24d…38b2backed Yes | 49c | 276.19$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.73 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aab…15c5backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…b331backed Yes | 50c | 199.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 398 | 64.3%256 W · 142 L | +33.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fb…ec4fbacked Yes | 49c | 197.84$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.94 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +9.5wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed No | 53c | 197.21$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.72 | 400 | 53.5%214 W · 186 L | +14.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a9…592dbacked Yes | 50c | 196.05$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.97 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked No | 54c | 194.48$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.46 | 931 | 45.8%426 W · 505 L | -25.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed No | 50c | 194$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 589 | 51.3%302 W · 287 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7239…00a0backed Yes | 49c | 174.31$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec6…e52cbacked Yes | 49c | 156.47$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.67 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a2…68a0backed Yes | 21c | 154.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 153 | 51%78 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Yes | 49c | 131.48$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.05 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb24…fad9backed Yes | 45c | 130.63$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.78 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b0…48f3backed Yes | 45c | 126.23$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca1…57e4backed Yes | 45c | 122.49$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 192 | 45.3%87 W · 105 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8510…e41ebacked Yes | 48c | 100.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd19f…3eabbacked Yes | 49c | 98.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed No | 56c | 97.36$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 952 | 60.2%573 W · 379 L | +37.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f1…3fd9backed No | 50c | 97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…a5d6backed Yes | 51c | 95.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Yes | 51c | 95.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 381 | 52.8%201 W · 180 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…f39cbacked No | 52c | 88$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 270 | 59.6%161 W · 109 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 49c | 75.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 108 | 44.4%48 W · 60 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf226…9c0fbacked Yes | 45c | 74.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…4ce4backed Yes | 45c | 53.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce27…8a7dbacked No | 52c | 46.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 134 | 41%55 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3630…b1ccbacked Yes | 48c | 45.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x191b…824abacked Yes | 45c | 42.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…20fabacked Yes | 55c | 39.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Yes | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 216 | 42.1%91 W · 125 L | -15.6wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06ce…c202backed Yes | 45c | 37.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Yes | 45c | 34.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 533 | 49.3%263 W · 270 L | -28.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc268…0b96backed Yes | 46c | 31.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x110d…cd01backed Yes | 47c | 30.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 345 | 56.2%194 W · 151 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | -10.9wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4a…654dbacked Yes | 49c | 29.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bd…c085backed Yes | 49c | 29.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Yes | 51c | 28.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 50c | 27.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeba2…315cbacked Yes | 46c | 25.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab80…76eabacked Yes | 48c | 24.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf87…b064backed No | 46c | 23.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d49…b995backed Yes | 49c | 23.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Yes | 49c | 21.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | -16.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1846…ec96backed Yes | 51c | 20.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2f…3528backed Yes | 52c | 19.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Luka Dončić: Points O/U 32.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- Ajay Mitchell: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Lakers vs. ThunderThunder won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 226.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 229.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 230.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 231.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5Over won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 16.5No won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 30.5No won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.