NBA · resolved market
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa18691f86e7d6efe9f3a822f46b4ad5087b5b6ae7243ae113b7e93d6ccf37549
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,883
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 43c | 589.64$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.55 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 44c | 555$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.2 | 447 | 40.7%182 W · 265 L | -27.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 57c | 523.86$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.5 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Under | 43c | 446.75$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.19 | 219 | 50.2%110 W · 109 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea3…a8aebacked Over | 51c | 376.99$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.73 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 365.3$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.07 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 57c | 268.26$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.35 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 9c | 258.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ac…61e8backed Over | 53c | 213.28$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.24 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 57c | 210.52$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.52 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 48c | 194.23$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.23 | 553 | 47.9%265 W · 288 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Over | 52c | 169.2$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.04 | 349 | 53%185 W · 164 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 51c | 165.61$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.15 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Over | 58c | 137.05$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.18 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Under | 11c | 133$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 206 | 38.3%79 W · 127 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 52c | 131.5$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.12 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Over | 52c | 125.46$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.78 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Under | 48c | 121.91$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Under | 43c | 121.69$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.33 | 775 | 49.2%381 W · 394 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 54c | 119.23$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.33 | 716 | 54.1%387 W · 329 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd831…30c1backed Over | 51c | 114.19$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.95 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…cbcdbacked Over | 52c | 112.7$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.43 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 42c | 108.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…306fbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed Under | 53c | 97.17$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.37 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 47c | 87$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.11 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Over | 53c | 86.7$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 148 | 52.7%78 W · 70 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e70…14babacked Under | 47c | 86.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 166 | 42.2%70 W · 96 L | -11.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 53c | 76.53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.97 | 906 | 50.2%455 W · 451 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Over | 53c | 76.53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.97 | 350 | 52.6%184 W · 166 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over | 53c | 76.53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.97 | 592 | 50.2%297 W · 295 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Over | 53c | 76.53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.97 | 516 | 47.5%245 W · 271 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 50c | 73.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 50c | 73.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 564 | 47.9%270 W · 294 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…90c7backed Over | 58c | 61.66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Over | 53c | 45.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 570 | 51.9%296 W · 274 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 47c | 44.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb77…c26ebacked Over | 58c | 42.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7387…ccf1backed Under | 43c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 47c | 34.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 554 | 44.4%246 W · 308 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 53c | 34.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e5…1dd0backed Under | 49c | 31.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 416 | 54.8%228 W · 188 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbf…3ef8backed Under | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Under | 48c | 29.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e13…b909backed Over | 58c | 29.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d03…b8a6backed Over | 71c | 27.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dbf…a9ffbacked Over | 55c | 26.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc8…47d0backed Under | 48c | 24.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 229.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- Ajay Mitchell: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Lakers vs. ThunderThunder won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 226.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 230.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 231.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5Over won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 16.5No won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Luka Dončić: Points O/U 32.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 30.5No won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.