NBA · resolved market
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x582bd95ad9f7267d9530ac3e755903d00cbd161a2118fbf80805ff6698d379a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,934
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,260
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,934 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb915…8da5backed Over | 53c | 11,617$6,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,478.28 | 104 | 59.6%62 W · 42 L | +8.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +23%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 7,861$3,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,574.21 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Over | 58c | 3,361$1,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,411.78 | 145 | 56.6%82 W · 63 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Under | 44c | 2,115$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.27 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 1,114$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.64 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 47c | 1,060$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.2 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 43c | 802.88$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.24 | 292 | 43.8%128 W · 164 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6292…d254backed Under | 49c | 791.35$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.76 | 208 | 46.6%97 W · 111 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 46c | 778.54$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.26 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Over | 55c | 484.21$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.25 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Under | 47c | 427.46$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.45 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 46c | 375.38$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.28 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Under | 47c | 372.33$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Over | 57c | 356.09$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.12 | 206 | 38.3%79 W · 127 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 57c | 344.99$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.34 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Under | 43c | 338.03$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.35 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Over | 56c | 310.98$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.35 | 349 | 53%185 W · 164 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 43c | 297.37$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.87 | 447 | 40.7%182 W · 265 L | -27.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 11c | 264.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 251 | 50.6%127 W · 124 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…f949backed Over | 55c | 229.98$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.49 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 46c | 201.49$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.69 | 553 | 47.9%265 W · 288 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb307…be4abacked Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f43…c0c2backed Over | 51c | 199.72$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.86 | 234 | 35.9%84 W · 150 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86f3…685cbacked Over | 77c | 197.62$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 125 | 58.4%73 W · 52 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a9…c488backed Under | 47c | 193.64$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.01 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd816…a60ebacked Under | 46c | 189.52$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.08 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 9c | 176.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b71…80ecbacked Under | 47c | 164.8$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.46 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Under | 47c | 155.88$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.09 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Under | 48c | 150.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.48 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 47c | 148.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e70…14babacked Under | 48c | 118.81$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.52 | 166 | 42.2%70 W · 96 L | -11.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Under | 19c | 114.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed Over | 63c | 97.75$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Under | 48c | 96.43$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 387 | 51.2%198 W · 189 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f5…0688backed Over | 53c | 91.35$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.93 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…cbcdbacked Over | 54c | 90.89$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.59 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 46c | 77.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 609 | 45.8%279 W · 330 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Under | 49c | 74.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 389 | 47.6%185 W · 204 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 36c | 73.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa15f…ad19backed Under | 47c | 67.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 47c | 59.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 47c | 50.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 554 | 44.4%246 W · 308 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x685b…cca8backed Over | 61c | 48.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d63…0b78backed Over | 61c | 44.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 132 | 53.8%71 W · 61 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 49c | 44.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x700a…58a5backed Under | 44c | 42.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 223 | 36.8%82 W · 141 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…401cbacked Under | 44c | 37.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 57c | 37.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 39c | 36.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05cc…7c4bbacked Over | 53c | 36.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…30b9backed Under | 45c | 34.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Under | 47c | 33.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 917 | 46.9%430 W · 487 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x405b…e12bbacked Under | 45c | 30.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Under | 47c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 224 | 56.3%126 W · 98 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbf…3ef8backed Under | 43c | 29.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0071…32dfbacked Over | 60c | 28.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8d…1a96backed Under | 46c | 24.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Over | 57c | 18.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 346 | 41%142 W · 204 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…2e2bbacked Over | 57c | 17.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- Ajay Mitchell: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Lakers vs. ThunderThunder won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 226.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 229.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 230.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 231.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5Over won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 16.5No won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Luka Dončić: Points O/U 32.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 30.5No won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.