TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xeb24…fad9

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
78
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Tennis, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Tennis at 58 out of 100; worst NBA at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2026, EDT2646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winnerbacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.21
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs ShindeN - Map 1 Winnerbacked MIBR · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.99
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffsbacked Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$128.26
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Spirit - Map 2 Winnerbacked Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$90.05
Counter-Strike: FOLHA AMARELA vs Crashers - Map 2 Winnerbacked FOLHA AMARELA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$48.72
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2backed Aurora Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$65.06
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2backed paiN · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5)backed paiN · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.76
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2backed Legacy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$41.43
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2backed B8 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.49
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2backed Legacy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+45.3%+$17.01
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Astralis - Map 2 Winnerbacked Legacy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$32.93
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs 3DMAX - Map 2 Winnerbacked FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.27
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs 3DMAX (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2backed FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.51
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs 3DMAX - Map 1 Winnerbacked FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 3DMAX (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2backed FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$600.03
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 3DMAX - Map 1 Winnerbacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$164
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2backed MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$586Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+30.5%+$178.88
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Heroic (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2backed Heroic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$139
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs Heroic (+1.5)backed Heroic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+49.3%+$39.4
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Astralis - Map 1 Winnerbacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy - Map 2 Winnerbacked Legacy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$151Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+66.7%+$100.67
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2backed Legacy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+108.6%+$93.43
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2backed G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+108.3%+$54.17
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy - Map 1 Winnerbacked Legacy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+102%+$102.04
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT1855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+162.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Tennis — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Miami Open: Moise Kouame vs Jiri Leheckabacked Moise Kouame · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Svitolina (+1.5)backed Svitolina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.56
BNP Paribas Open: Elena Rybakina vs Elina Svitolinabacked Elina Svitolina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Santiago: Adolfo Vallejo vs Thiago Monteirobacked Thiago Monteiro · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+223.5%+$76.47
Set Handicap: Pegula (-1.5) vs Bencic (+1.5)backed Bencic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.92
BNP Paribas Open: Joao Fonseca vs Jannik Sinnerbacked Joao Fonseca · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
BNP Paribas Open: Learner Tien vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokinabacked Learner Tien · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$16.75
Set Handicap: Swiatek (-1.5) vs Sakkari (+1.5)backed Sakkari · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.35
Set 1 Winner: Vacherot vs Ruudbacked Vacherot · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$34.51
Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Siniakova (+1.5)backed Siniakova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+157.3%+$121.11
BNP Paribas Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Katerina Siniakovabacked Katerina Siniakova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+2,400%+$240
Set Handicap: Draper (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5)backed Draper · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$55.55
BNP Paribas Open: Novak Djokovic vs Aleksandar Kovacevicbacked Aleksandar Kovacevic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.05
BNP Paribas Open: Joao Fonseca vs Tommy Paulbacked Joao Fonseca · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+149.1%+$71.96
BNP Paribas Open: Coco Gauff vs Alexandra Ealabacked Alexandra Eala · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+426.3%+$127.89
Set Handicap: Anisimova (-1.5) vs Raducanu (+1.5)backed Anisimova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$38.77
BNP Paribas Open: Katerina Siniakova vs Leylah Fernandezbacked Katerina Siniakova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST+63.9%+$17.58
BNP Paribas Open: Karen Khachanov vs Joao Fonsecabacked Karen Khachanov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$52.84
All 18 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 3, 2026, EDT1735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-32.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Thunder (-8.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.88
Luka Dončić: Points O/U 32.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.78
Celtics vs. Spursbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Warriors vs. Jazzbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.22
Nuggets vs. Thunderbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.92
Bulls vs. Kingsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Wizards vs. Pelicansbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Pistons vs. Heat: 1H Moneylinebacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.86
James Harden: Rebounds O/U 4.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.79
Celtics vs. Cavaliersbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$62.45
Brook Lopez: Rebounds O/U 4.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+104.8%+$104.84
Kawhi Leonard: Points O/U 27.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+103%+$51.52
Clippers vs. Spursbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 4.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+92.4%+$93.02
Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 12.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+69.5%+$35.44
Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 16.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Neemias Queta: Points O/U 8.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+73.9%+$49.17
All 17 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2026, EDT1266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+51.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Lol — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Seasonbacked FURIA Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$180
Game Handicap: FUR (-1.5) vs LOS (+1.5)backed FURIA Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
LoL: LOUD vs RED Canids (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Seasonbacked RED Canids · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$136.22
LoL: LOUD vs RED Canids - Game 1 Winnerbacked RED Canids · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$34.36
LoL: FURIA Esports vs Cloud9 (BO5) - Americas Cup Playoffsbacked FURIA Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$132.56
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs JD Gaming (+1.5)backed JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winnerbacked JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Game Handicap: JDG (-2.5) vs Weibo Gaming (+2.5)backed JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+85.7%+$51.42
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffsbacked JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+86.5%+$83.06
LoL: FURIA Esports vs Sentinels - Game 3 Winnerbacked FURIA Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+108.3%+$86.67
LoL: FURIA Esports vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winnerbacked FURIA Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+115.7%+$124.43
LoL: FURIA Esports vs Sentinels - Game 1 Winnerbacked FURIA Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+186.2%+$70.09
All 12 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 9, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stagebacked Tundra Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.95
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winnerbacked Aurora · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.23
All 2 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: Paper Rex vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffsbacked Paper Rex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+108.7%+$77.67
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kings vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.13
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.