NBA · resolved market
Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 12.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36b6468229dbea4dfb937c46687df5f605c89dbee7fb554cefd76bbedfd67530
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,050
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,050 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Yes | 56c | 5,740$3,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,513.36 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa382…ed19backed No | 44c | 5,035$2,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,205.19 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 45c | 2,660$1,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,207.81 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b6…3d60backed Yes | 60c | 1,660$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.08 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed No | 42c | 1,502$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.79 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Yes | 51c | 1,490$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.3 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 46c | 1,352$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.41 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…1691backed Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 722 | 41.4%299 W · 423 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5c…f9f5backed Yes | 52c | 810.07$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.94 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeffd…5a86backed No | 39c | 499.99$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.99 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 39c | 429.77$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.05 | 138 | 35.5%49 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a43…3aebbacked Yes | 63c | 348.41$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.26 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed No | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 521 | 46.6%243 W · 278 L | -14.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 434 | 47.5%206 W · 228 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc984…195ebacked Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0c…4a2dbacked Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dd…d3dfbacked Yes | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf3…aa3abacked No | 44c | 113.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed Yes | 56c | 103.46$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.52 | 831 | 58.1%483 W · 348 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb24…fad9backed Yes | 59c | 86.44$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…9299backed Yes | 45c | 85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.75 | 369 | 54.7%202 W · 167 L | +28.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5430…c1d3backed No | 55c | 85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 227 | 74.4%169 W · 58 L | +22.5wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 50c | 71.36$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x342b…d208backed Yes | 53c | 61.51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c94…1f7dbacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85a7…d9f3backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb83d…3aa2backed Yes | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 240 | 42.9%103 W · 137 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…8cc1backed No | 46c | 40.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 1,084 | 42.4%460 W · 624 L | -48.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 220 | 44.5%98 W · 122 L | -14.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadad…5857backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f3…e279backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed Yes | 55c | 33.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 602 | 67.3%405 W · 197 L | +46.2wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb3…6e65backed Yes | 49c | 31.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ea…18e7backed Yes | 62c | 30.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf46…a799backed Yes | 48c | 28.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Yes | 58c | 28.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 920 | 58%534 W · 386 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x110d…cd01backed Yes | 51c | 27.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 345 | 56.2%194 W · 151 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2927…05fcbacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…9b3ebacked Yes | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 970 | 49.5%480 W · 490 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Yes | 61c | 18.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 146 | 54.8%80 W · 66 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 12.5this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-8.5)Mavericks won
- Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 8.5No won
- Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Derrick White: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Derrick White: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 27.5No won
- Jaylen Brown: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Mavericks vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Mavericks vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Mavericks vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Celtics: O/U 221.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Celtics: O/U 222.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Celtics: O/U 223.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Celtics: O/U 224.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Celtics: O/U 225.5Under won
- Neemias Queta: Points O/U 8.5Yes won
- Neemias Queta: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Nikola Vučević: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Payton Pritchard: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Spread: Celtics (-14.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-15.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.