TailMyPicks
Market

NBA · resolved market

Mavericks vs. Celtics: O/U 224.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$303,286

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $303,286 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Over52c151,421$78,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78,811.287451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under48c81,330$38,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,604.324,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under48c50,073$23,874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,198.39,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf05…291bbacked Over53c18,568$9,901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,901.042744.4%12 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Over28c18,229$5,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,104.131,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x99e0…5052backed Under49c18,000$8,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,2408839.8%35 W · 53 L-7.0wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-18.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Over54c17,000$9,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,18019747.7%94 W · 103 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa084…bb99backed Under46c16,842$7,747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,094.472445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Under48c12,355$5,922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,433.4815952.2%83 W · 76 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Over53c10,000$5,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,30045850.4%231 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Under48c8,608$4,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,459.532,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Over54c8,204$4,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,43036549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under48c7,383$3,579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,804.164,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under48c6,060$2,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,169.175,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34cd…9675backed Under48c4,794$2,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,492.8822648.2%109 W · 117 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Under47c4,693$2,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,466.331,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea32…8870backed Over53c4,400$2,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,331.994744.7%21 W · 26 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under48c4,266$2,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,233.182,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Over50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00066248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Under47c4,000$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,119.9979549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Under48c3,125$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6251,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eca…6a15backed Over54c2,210$1,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,193.49742.3%41 W · 56 L-10.0wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-19%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under49c2,200$1,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,121.363,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under52c2,200$1,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.9880737.7%304 W · 503 L-33.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Under47c2,128$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,127.6634854%188 W · 160 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…d83abacked Under49c2,100$1,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,081.58747.1%41 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae82…faf0backed Over53c2,000$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,06015849.4%78 W · 80 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Over51c1,961$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.9826637.2%99 W · 167 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under47c1,755$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$930.36,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under48c1,220$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.12,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Over53c1,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53026149.4%129 W · 132 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf630…7e65backed Over53c1,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53029149.5%144 W · 147 L+1.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Over50c1,000$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49533150.8%168 W · 163 L+1.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Under49c881.69$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.3713835.5%49 W · 89 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Over45c800$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36084342.9%362 W · 481 L-39.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8013…5b52backed Over47c791.3$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36817554.9%96 W · 79 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+31.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under48c790.33$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.93,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0644…05debacked Over42c741.9$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.617844.4%79 W · 99 L+0.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under49c733.2$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.932,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58dc…59e4backed Over54c555.56$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3006538.5%25 W · 40 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8a97…c1f9backed Under48c503.34$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.5817960.9%109 W · 70 L+17.7wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+19.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd92d…e560backed Under48c500$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2606855.9%38 W · 30 L-0.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Over53c486.35$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.771,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over45c454.92$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.948,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x968f…5129backed Over49c441.22$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.761030%3 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-39.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Under50c439.34$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.431,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6846…a82fbacked Under48c425.22$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.72437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-25.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a3c…62e3backed Over52c392.35$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Under46c382$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.281,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Under47c378.72$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.7249246.3%228 W · 264 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under48c335.42$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.5254549.5%270 W · 275 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Under48c325.91$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.464844.8%290 W · 358 L-32.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Under47c319.15$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.1552146.6%243 W · 278 L-14.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Under48c295.97$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.9745646.7%213 W · 243 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b9e…eb82backed Over28c275$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7734248.8%167 W · 175 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over55c256.27$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.582,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Over53c235.45$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.71,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x292e…172cbacked Under47c212.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.7743447.5%206 W · 228 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Under47c208.33$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.4176552.9%405 W · 360 L-2.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5090…ccb2backed Under47c208.33$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.411612.5%2 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.20per pick32cpaid-74.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4008…2942backed Over53c182.08$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.518254.4%99 W · 83 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over23c174.75$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.573,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under47c165.52$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.575,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under48c153.17$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.181,00351%512 W · 491 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Over52c152.99$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.791,01851.6%525 W · 493 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Under47c150$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.556547.8%270 W · 295 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Under53c147.89$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.9984150.3%423 W · 418 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under48c146$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.922,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc00…79f8backed Under53c119.96$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.3815240.8%62 W · 90 L-12.1wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-19.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under46c109.87$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.334,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d4b…284abacked Over51c107.84$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553243.8%14 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-21.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under46c106.38$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.452,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Under48c104.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.1797049.5%480 W · 490 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cb5…6be6backed Over54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5415156.3%85 W · 66 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Under49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.578648.7%383 W · 403 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9637…cefdbacked Over53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Under46c99.98$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.9939435.3%139 W · 255 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ee1…268bbacked Over50c99.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5053453.4%285 W · 249 L+19.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x86a8…d0e7backed Under55c90.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.9110955%60 W · 49 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddbd…e738backed Under49c84.98$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.347443.2%32 W · 42 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9572…ea8ebacked Over51c84.97$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.337960.8%48 W · 31 L+8.2wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+19.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1e98…110bbacked Under57c84.65$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.430845.8%141 W · 167 L-1.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe276…a85bbacked Over46c83.18$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2612552%65 W · 60 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd84b…0df3backed Over53c79.74$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6414647.9%70 W · 76 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over43c79.34$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.793,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a25…bb6bbacked Under47c75$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.7534047.1%160 W · 180 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Under46c73.92$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.591,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04b4…8d0bbacked Under48c73.44$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.1957250%286 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0307…7ab8backed Over44c67.88$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5545452%236 W · 218 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6d6…f530backed Over45c66.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Under47c63.39$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3964944.7%290 W · 359 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Under48c62.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.593145.8%426 W · 505 L-25.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Over46c61.88$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.462,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under48c59.68$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.271,42547.7%680 W · 745 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x142d…bf73backed Over51c58.8$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.996549.2%32 W · 33 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd598…c67cbacked Under48c56.37$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.379037.8%34 W · 56 L-7.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-18.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Under47c55.2$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.221,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over21c55.13$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.482,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Over27c53.75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3610623.6%25 W · 81 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Under48c53$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5646447.8%222 W · 242 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.