TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Celtics (-8.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Mavericksof Celtics, Mavericks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,783

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,783 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa0dc…586cbacked Celtics55c727.27$400 inLost-$40028838.2%110 W · 178 L-17.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfb87…0335backed Mavericks51c717.65$366 inWon+$351.6513346.6%62 W · 71 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x533c…eb85backed Mavericks48c326.2$157 inWon+$169.621258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+19.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb431…b654backed Celtics52c165$86 inLost-$85.81947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f1d…32fabacked Celtics52c161.2$84 inLost-$83.82944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c39…20eebacked Mavericks50c68.64$34 inWon+$34.3235843.6%156 W · 202 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ceb…b516backed Celtics50c63.64$32 inLost-$31.826550.8%33 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa370…06fbbacked Mavericks51c52.94$27 inWon+$25.94560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+41.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Celtics49c50$25 inLost-$24.563555.6%353 W · 282 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd3e…186fbacked Celtics54c19$10 inLost-$10.261145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.