TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Mavericks vs. Celtics

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Celticsof Mavericks, Celtics
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,413,594

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,413,594 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 513 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8e43…a3cdbacked Mavericks10c496,362$51,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,999.8843542.8%186 W · 249 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Mavericks10c243,891$24,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,827.9827424.5%67 W · 207 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f05…8937backed Mavericks11c133,733$14,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,439.2247028.1%132 W · 338 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa96c…a59cbacked Mavericks13c132,499$17,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,006.46333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+203%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked Mavericks11c100,000$11,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,0009018.9%17 W · 73 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68ca…9f73backed Mavericks11c90,325$9,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,485.7932540.3%131 W · 194 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Mavericks0c77,488$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.2326637.2%99 W · 167 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Mavericks10c49,999$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,999.9123257.8%134 W · 98 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2580…1d56backed Mavericks16c48,674$7,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,671.7611737.6%44 W · 73 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Mavericks10c46,911$4,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,691.091,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3212…634ebacked Mavericks10c44,651$4,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,468.5540035.5%142 W · 258 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Mavericks10c42,267$4,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,226.7448845.3%221 W · 267 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Mavericks11c41,802$4,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,643.72,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8716…bd57backed Mavericks11c40,663$4,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,332.941832.8%137 W · 281 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Mavericks10c40,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00029055.5%161 W · 129 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Mavericks10c30,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0001,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Mavericks11c26,196$2,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,855.91,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Mavericks10c25,896$2,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,589.648352%251 W · 232 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Mavericks10c25,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5001,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83ab…3d56backed Mavericks10c25,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5009343%40 W · 53 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Mavericks13c23,653$3,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,066.718,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4c9…cd97backed Mavericks12c20,800$2,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4968640.7%35 W · 51 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ec…e8f1backed Mavericks12c20,606$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40024831.9%79 W · 169 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fe0…d994backed Mavericks10c20,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00037448.7%182 W · 192 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Mavericks10c18,322$1,896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,896.341,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c59…3887backed Mavericks12c16,745$2,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,072.176126.2%16 W · 45 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaacb…45d7backed Mavericks11c15,826$1,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,740.831010%1 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick33cpaid-81.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Mavericks10c13,865$1,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,386.54,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e33…5825backed Mavericks17c13,758$2,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,310.14616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-78.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Mavericks2c13,555$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.437211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e3a…3246backed Mavericks12c12,682$1,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,521.8219954.8%109 W · 90 L+12.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Mavericks5c12,432$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6481,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Mavericks1c11,621$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.975213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Mavericks9c11,228$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988.061,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Mavericks10c11,200$1,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.271,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Mavericks11c10,336$1,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,136.961,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4309…7456backed Mavericks11c10,100$1,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,080.9961336.1%221 W · 392 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b0…48f3backed Mavericks10c10,000$1,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,045.4511247.3%53 W · 59 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4137…586cbacked Mavericks11c10,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10047043.8%206 W · 264 L-22.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Mavericks10c10,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Mavericks10c10,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00077348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Mavericks10c10,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0009159.3%54 W · 37 L+9.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+20.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Mavericks16c9,979$1,641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,641.538540.3%155 W · 230 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80c3…5ac7backed Mavericks17c9,951$1,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,691.596453.1%34 W · 30 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed Mavericks16c9,823$1,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,601.7311342.5%48 W · 65 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Mavericks10c9,567$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.454,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Mavericks10c9,189$919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$918.9459347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8302…f88abacked Mavericks12c9,109$1,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,061.51241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+17.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc58c…8b7fbacked Mavericks11c9,091$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0004738.3%18 W · 29 L-4.2wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-23.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x648d…1366backed Mavericks10c8,911$891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891.093336.4%12 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Mavericks11c8,823$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.5432039.4%126 W · 194 L-1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Mavericks15c8,777$1,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,288.774,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9438…ad81backed Mavericks1c8,722$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.23179.5%30 W · 287 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-59.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Mavericks2c8,254$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.8519033.7%64 W · 126 L+8.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Mavericks19c8,067$1,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,523.652,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Mavericks11c8,050$886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885.51,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Mavericks10c8,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80035251.1%180 W · 172 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Mavericks3c8,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2401,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01f5…5cfbbacked Mavericks12c7,652$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90016421.3%35 W · 129 L-10.7wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-30.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Mavericks5c7,613$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.71,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0979…8d9bbacked Mavericks10c7,304$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75020352.7%107 W · 96 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Mavericks19c7,264$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,349.7461939.6%245 W · 374 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14f7…232cbacked Mavericks11c7,000$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick17cpaid+34.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Mavericks1c6,876$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.9567911%75 W · 604 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf026…8df7backed Mavericks19c6,849$1,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,295.7911843.2%51 W · 67 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Mavericks14c6,784$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$948.6546940.3%189 W · 280 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Mavericks10c6,500$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65064944.7%290 W · 359 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Mavericks11c6,045$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.753,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Mavericks13c6,044$763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763.1285344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00d5…ed84backed Mavericks13c5,933$795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$795.2317050%85 W · 85 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbaac…ff10backed Mavericks9c5,889$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.7212454.8%68 W · 56 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-11.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Mavericks14c5,384$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.71,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc699…7961backed Mavericks6c5,380$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.0720843.8%91 W · 117 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x128f…db9dbacked Mavericks10c5,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020651.5%106 W · 100 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Mavericks11c5,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55095641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8436…4c19backed Mavericks11c5,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5503366.7%22 W · 11 L+5.7wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+55.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3383…c5c0backed Mavericks11c5,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.997837.2%29 W · 49 L-6.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-12%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6f8b…8ed2backed Mavericks10c5,000$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.9960%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc65…96c8backed Mavericks11c4,555$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50133735.3%119 W · 218 L+1.3wins0.00per pick35cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Mavericks0c4,475$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.478820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Mavericks11c4,411$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.8862347.7%297 W · 326 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Mavericks4c4,284$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.7181529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Mavericks13c4,250$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.730840.9%126 W · 182 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfa8…627bbacked Mavericks12c4,190$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.87651.3%39 W · 37 L-0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff5b…c583backed Mavericks11c4,103$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.3320847.6%99 W · 109 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x00c9…4efdbacked Mavericks11c4,050$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.560%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Mavericks10c4,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40058740%235 W · 352 L+24.3wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Mavericks12c3,801$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.8213835.5%49 W · 89 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Mavericks14c3,771$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.7689444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5fe…a0b3backed Mavericks11c3,365$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.151850%9 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Mavericks10c3,353$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.2624841.1%102 W · 146 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeeb3…d8e2backed Mavericks12c3,333$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-39.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Mavericks8c3,316$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.6936023.1%83 W · 277 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe021…e299backed Mavericks11c3,200$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.9910035%35 W · 65 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-21.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xed16…ad27backed Mavericks16c3,182$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9661…5669backed Mavericks11c3,021$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.3450%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x20e5…d3bcbacked Mavericks10c3,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30022637.2%84 W · 142 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Mavericks14c2,953$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.5931345%141 W · 172 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf112…d9e1backed Mavericks17c2,936$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.127536%27 W · 48 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacc1…84edbacked Mavericks11c2,916$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.7160%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.