TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x2927…05fc

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
109
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: NHL, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category NHL at 53 out of 100; worst Serie A at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 27, 2026, EDT2552%13 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Playoffsbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.45
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Playoffsbacked Aurora Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$28.19
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO5) - ESL Pro League Playoffsbacked Aurora Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffsbacked Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.19
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5)backed FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$21.72
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffsbacked FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$12.78
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffsbacked Legacy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs BESTIA (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Group Cbacked Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$8.58
Counter-Strike: STATE vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #18 Group Stagebacked Rune Eaters · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$8.6
Counter-Strike: DashSkins vs Bounty Hunters Esports (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Playoffsbacked DashSkins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.8
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Wildcard LAN Group Abacked Ground Zero · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+56.8%+$19.89
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2backed G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winnerbacked G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2backed Astralis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.6
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Heroic (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2backed Heroic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$49.2
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2backed Legacy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+82%+$37.73
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5)backed Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2backed G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+334.8%+$66.96
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2backed B8 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+78.6%+$15.71
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs ODDIK (BO3) - Circuit X Pantanal Cuiabá Group Cbacked Yawara Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+134.4%+$20.16
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2backed G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+78.6%+$15.71
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Legacy - Map 2 Winnerbacked Aurora Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Legacy - Map 1 Winnerbacked Legacy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs R2 Esports Club (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Group Stagebacked Procyon Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+104.1%+$12.49
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Heroic (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1backed Heroic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+150%+$30
All 25 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2026, EDT2050%10 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Lol — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: GIANTX vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Group Stagebacked Fnatic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
LoL: French Flair vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Playoffsbacked Galions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$27
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs JD Gaming (+2.5)backed JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$23
Game Handicap: G2 (-2.5) vs Team Secret Whales (+2.5)backed Team Secret Whales · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.6
LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - First Stand Group Abacked Team Secret Whales · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
First Blood in Game 1?backed G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$12.78
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group Abacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$17.97
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX - Game 4 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+38.2%+$13.36
Game Handicap: WT (-1.5) vs G2 NORD (+1.5)backed Witchcraft · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.8
LoL: S2G Esports vs Frites Esports Club - Game 2 Winnerbacked S2G Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
LoL: FURIA Esports vs Cloud9 (BO5) - Americas Cup Playoffsbacked Cloud9 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$107.16
Games Total: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 4 Winnerbacked JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winnerbacked JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+103.8%+$41.52
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffsbacked JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+88.7%+$22.17
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 3 Winnerbacked JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+97.6%+$43.91
LoL: FURIA Esports vs Sentinels (BO5) - Americas Cup Playoffsbacked FURIA Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+125.4%+$25.08
LoL: FURIA Esports vs Sentinels - Game 3 Winnerbacked FURIA Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+122.2%+$25.97
LoL: FURIA Esports vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winnerbacked Sentinels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$20
LoL: RED Canids vs Sentinels (BO3) - Americas Cup Playoffsbacked Sentinels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+46.7%+$11.67
All 20 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT1250%6 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$7.06
Will Manchester United FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.3
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$9.33
Sunderland AFC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$18.8
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+170.3%+$42.57
Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)backed Wrexham AFC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+61.3%+$17.1
Wrexham AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$36.6
Will Millwall FC win on 2026-03-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$40.71
Hull City AFC vs. Millwall FC: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$15.48
Mansfield Town FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+56.5%+$10.73
All 12 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2026, EDT862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Mar 12, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-44.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+25.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-41.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Serie A — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-33.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 12, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Beşiktaş JK vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$65
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.