TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FUT Esportsof G2, FUT Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,332,174

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,332,174 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 902 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x99e4…e4c4backed FUT Esports47c86,646$40,762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,884.0222941.9%96 W · 133 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4564…c051backed G20c64,149$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1645236.5%19 W · 33 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked G254c60,004$32,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,402.3242440.3%171 W · 253 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed G253c55,326$29,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,296.3425842.2%109 W · 149 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe015…6ffdbacked G253c48,106$25,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,496.2715245.4%69 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xceec…4ad9backed FUT Esports49c40,805$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,805.182556%14 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed FUT Esports46c39,130$18,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,130.4314441.7%60 W · 84 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked FUT Esports48c30,089$14,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,626.9983652.5%439 W · 397 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d29…5808backed FUT Esports46c21,712$9,978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,733.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a46…ab25backed FUT Esports49c20,451$9,936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,515.2911550.4%58 W · 57 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked G263c20,299$12,693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,692.5914954.4%81 W · 68 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed G251c19,902$10,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,139.6588242.3%373 W · 509 L-13.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed FUT Esports28c15,000$4,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,859.9530340.3%122 W · 181 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed G252c13,343$6,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,902.1824846.8%116 W · 132 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed G256c12,088$6,824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,824.1272453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2560…0b02backed G253c11,391$6,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,038.3722448.7%109 W · 115 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x886e…afd6backed FUT Esports47c10,638$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,638.31752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7193…ae51backed FUT Esports49c10,131$4,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,151.9829858.4%174 W · 124 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2110…539ebacked G20c10,100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcaf…e271backed G250c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,999.9937946.4%176 W · 203 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked FUT Esports37c9,868$3,695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,172.811,62944.8%730 W · 899 L+4.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed FUT Esports43c9,693$4,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,487.8767041.8%280 W · 390 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe64f…7d71backed FUT Esports45c9,651$4,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,278.963855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f28…9291backed G273c9,624$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,000944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-33.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked G252c9,593$5,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,012.0781751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x562b…f85fbacked G256c9,014$5,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,004.945855.2%32 W · 26 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed FUT Esports47c9,000$4,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,769.9735254%190 W · 162 L+13.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed G252c8,294$4,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,313.0119645.4%89 W · 107 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb00a…c58cbacked FUT Esports44c8,115$3,546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,568.778444%37 W · 47 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa69d…509bbacked FUT Esports46c8,000$3,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,32019757.4%113 W · 84 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked FUT Esports47c7,700$3,619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,080.9623653.8%127 W · 109 L+7.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed FUT Esports42c7,676$3,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,462.6242341.8%177 W · 246 L-0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed FUT Esports56c7,564$4,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,302.6839248.7%191 W · 201 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed G252c7,500$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,90022849.6%113 W · 115 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed G253c7,332$3,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,885.8710551.4%54 W · 51 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x098b…1fa5backed G253c7,000$3,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,71012441.1%51 W · 73 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed FUT Esports46c6,611$3,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,583.6112648.4%61 W · 65 L-10.4wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-20.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7a60…3170backed FUT Esports47c6,605$3,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,500.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8310…8967backed G253c6,500$3,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,4456243.5%27 W · 35 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a8c…f872backed G254c6,441$3,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,48117954.7%98 W · 81 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa803…2949backed G255c6,165$3,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,365.611241.1%46 W · 66 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9ac…9170backed FUT Esports46c6,053$2,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,298.29728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick59cpaid-47.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x11e5…337ebacked G238c6,000$2,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,255.6822550.7%114 W · 111 L+0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed G222c5,848$1,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,292.9982143%353 W · 468 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc94a…cfcabacked FUT Esports47c5,761$2,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,053.46757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+18.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked G253c5,673$3,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,007.0132752.3%171 W · 156 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x11a2…db39backed G257c5,261$2,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9991553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc175…a7ecbacked G256c5,012$2,831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,831.491070%7 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+27.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked FUT Esports18c5,000$875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,12598352.4%515 W · 468 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed G253c5,000$2,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6507537.3%28 W · 47 L-7.6wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-20.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed FUT Esports36c5,000$1,823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,177.4357358.8%337 W · 236 L+16.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed G254c5,000$2,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,679.9946949.7%233 W · 236 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed G252c4,957$2,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,574.9575550.6%382 W · 373 L+17.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed FUT Esports21c4,891$1,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,872.7238546.2%178 W · 207 L-16.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x70c1…dba0backed FUT Esports29c4,864$1,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,470.9516152.8%85 W · 76 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x44c5…8d45backed FUT Esports46c4,856$2,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,622.0819455.2%107 W · 87 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c82…1f13backed FUT Esports43c4,853$2,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,766.1411758.1%68 W · 49 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7972…594fbacked FUT Esports71c4,559$3,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,308.718951.7%46 W · 43 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x77f6…dbd1backed G257c4,411$2,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,514.5417240.7%70 W · 102 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed G254c4,250$2,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,282.555736.3%202 W · 355 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f40…ba19backed G272c4,240$3,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,065.98250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-36.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5976…b3d4backed FUT Esports47c4,224$2,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,220.486536.9%24 W · 41 L-6.9wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-26.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4027…1afbbacked FUT Esports47c4,216$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,216.371758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+23%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed G253c4,066$2,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,154.9872046.1%332 W · 388 L-2.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed FUT Esports47c4,020$1,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,130.746343.2%200 W · 263 L+1.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked G255c4,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,199.9928538.2%109 W · 176 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked G237c3,955$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,480.122,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed G265c3,954$2,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,575.27965.8%52 W · 27 L+0.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed FUT Esports47c3,896$1,831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,064.9526344.5%117 W · 146 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfcca…c460backed FUT Esports47c3,840$1,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,035.210252%53 W · 49 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7cee…b72abacked FUT Esports47c3,840$1,786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,054.385354.7%29 W · 24 L+4.6wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+31.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x059e…54d1backed G259c3,671$2,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1555955.9%33 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick59cpaid+5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed FUT Esports44c3,579$1,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,995.2797240.7%396 W · 576 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38b0…060cbacked FUT Esports46c3,333$1,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,799.764546.7%21 W · 24 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+32.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed FUT Esports47c3,192$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,691.8135236.4%128 W · 224 L-1.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked FUT Esports63c3,077$1,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,151.881,39365.9%918 W · 475 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed G254c3,000$1,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,612.5813545.9%62 W · 73 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7787backed FUT Esports47c3,000$1,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,59020842.8%89 W · 119 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x62ff…90d0backed G258c3,000$1,738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,738.51471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked FUT Esports46c3,000$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,619.9920539.5%81 W · 124 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfaf1…795fbacked FUT Esports45c2,992$1,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,645.5829347.1%138 W · 155 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5eab…d552backed G251c2,951$1,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,519.3418724.1%45 W · 142 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-30.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb87…0335backed FUT Esports47c2,828$1,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,496.2436554.8%200 W · 165 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x389b…8d69backed G254c2,778$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5002339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-31.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed G253c2,750$1,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,457.4623848.3%115 W · 123 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb31b…d703backed G240c2,698$1,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,072.338552.7%203 W · 182 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab2e…2014backed FUT Esports48c2,665$1,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,385.794341.9%18 W · 25 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a24…4a1fbacked FUT Esports47c2,574$1,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,364.014452.3%23 W · 21 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53f0…fff4backed G253c2,536$1,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,354.741872.2%13 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick63cpaid+16.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed G253c2,500$1,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3251,08950.9%554 W · 535 L+38.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked G262c2,493$1,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,542.1935850.8%182 W · 176 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5454…ceadbacked G221c2,385$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5009552.6%50 W · 45 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5c1…7487backed FUT Esports16c2,349$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,967.2616732.9%55 W · 112 L-9.8wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-25.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed G253c2,300$1,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,22846749.7%232 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d52…834ebacked FUT Esports48c2,285$1,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,188.14728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-49.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked G251c2,271$1,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,158.3184454.3%458 W · 386 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed G253c2,202$1,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,177.0278939.5%312 W · 477 L-3.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5a28…41edbacked FUT Esports47c2,190$1,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,160.76347.6%30 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3878…1ab8backed G268c2,180$1,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,475.8918040.6%73 W · 107 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed FUT Esports46c2,166$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,178.9341850%209 W · 209 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.