TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$330,414

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $330,414 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ade…f5b0backed Over50c70,000$34,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,9901,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Under51c49,688$25,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,441.781,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Under50c32,840$16,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,326.651,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Under51c30,000$15,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,794.2460351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over49c26,113$12,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,831.829,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba93…2740backed Under50c22,514$11,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,257.13875%6 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+51.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked Over49c19,285$9,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,449.538251%195 W · 187 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Under51c19,253$9,873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,380.0516547.3%78 W · 87 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+56.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd47a…b2d4backed Under50c16,971$8,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,485.71850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over49c15,131$7,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,420.574,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over49c15,100$7,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,428.444,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under51c10,745$5,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,265.121653.7%116 W · 100 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Over50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0001,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90a1…73d6backed Over49c10,000$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,90010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefd5…f2eabacked Under50c8,400$4,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,2001060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Over49c8,000$3,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,919.9957950.1%290 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over49c6,458$3,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,180.223,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Over49c6,000$2,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9401,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x47a6…69e0backed Under50c6,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,00038750.4%195 W · 192 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Under51c5,929$3,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,905.41,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over49c5,713$2,813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,812.592,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over49c5,109$2,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,525.992,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Over50c5,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50077348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Over50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50017052.4%89 W · 81 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under51c3,000$1,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,48080737.7%304 W · 503 L-33.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed Over50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5006939.1%27 W · 42 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-20.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x65d6…6d6bbacked Over50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50012844.5%57 W · 71 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac1a…f708backed Under50c2,789$1,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,394.419445.4%88 W · 106 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3860…0efcbacked Under50c2,550$1,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,275.0512950.4%65 W · 64 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Under52c1,563$813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$750.4650754.2%275 W · 232 L+13.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Over50c1,300$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65064944.7%290 W · 359 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xebba…383cbacked Over50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50024050.8%122 W · 118 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Under50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4001,25948.7%613 W · 646 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc37…2f65backed Under50c718.37$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.1841649.8%207 W · 209 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Over49c693.88$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34087453.3%466 W · 408 L+19.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabde…d41fbacked Under52c505.05$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.4241947.7%200 W · 219 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Under50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25069149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Over50c425.52$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.381,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2271…8170backed Over50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20018147%85 W · 96 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x86d9…b214backed Over51c392.71$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9921854.6%119 W · 99 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over49c370.19$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.413,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over49c323.44$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.492,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under54c314.7$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.962,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9510…16dfbacked Under51c298.16$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.130453.3%162 W · 142 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Under51c294.12$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.1252146.6%243 W · 278 L-14.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d61…303dbacked Under50c288$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14410556.2%59 W · 46 L+8.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+16.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Under51c280$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.245646.7%213 W · 243 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Over49c265.47$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.9664844.8%290 W · 358 L-32.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Over50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10035744.3%158 W · 199 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x865d…47aabacked Under51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$986160.7%37 W · 24 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x41a3…017dbacked Over51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10032952.9%174 W · 155 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbefe…2d45backed Over52c193.18$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007841%32 W · 46 L-9.0wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-30.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over51c163.14$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.213,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb7c…3a5bbacked Under52c158.06$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.8714053.6%75 W · 65 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b5f…7b99backed Under50c150$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7538242.9%164 W · 218 L-11.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1e9…6d8ebacked Over50c150$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7515446.1%71 W · 83 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Under50c150$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x93f1…b99dbacked Under51c143.23$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.8514466%95 W · 49 L+17.1wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+20.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Over52c141.94$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.811,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Under51c140$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.656547.8%270 W · 295 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf594…bfc1backed Over51c139.76$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.289553.7%51 W · 44 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed Over51c138.06$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.416150.8%31 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Over44c132.83$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.851,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc308…c3b9backed Under51c128.18$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.8131354.6%171 W · 142 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3ed…159ebacked Over51c121.29$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a67…ef6bbacked Under52c119.99$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.626756.2%150 W · 117 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed Over51c100.03$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0233258.7%195 W · 137 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Over50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5039435.3%139 W · 255 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a2d…4f43backed Under51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4922850.9%116 W · 112 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe47b…1b4bbacked Under52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4835739.8%142 W · 215 L-25.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc8fb…72cdbacked Under50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under51c99$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.511,63448.1%786 W · 848 L+5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Over51c98.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,11052%577 W · 533 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fbd…b8d3backed Over51c97.8$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7867248.8%328 W · 344 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x00b7…5b93backed Over51c97.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.825651.6%132 W · 124 L+0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e45…4b13backed Under57c89.3$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.320569.3%142 W · 63 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ef0…f14cbacked Over14c83.83$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.74933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+138.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe2c0…d4dcbacked Over49c83.83$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.081040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-27.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa924…b1b9backed Under51c83.83$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.0814636.3%53 W · 93 L+16.4wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+58.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa028…0031backed Under51c81.25$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.8130654.6%167 W · 139 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf2d…e660backed Over50c80$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4011343.4%49 W · 64 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04b4…8d0bbacked Under51c70$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.357250%286 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77a5…f731backed Over51c70$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.34per pick51cpaid-68.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Over46c63.01$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9924138.6%93 W · 148 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60c2…8052backed Under51c60$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.415347.1%72 W · 81 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2927…05fcbacked Over51c58.82$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-44.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over38c56.83$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.785,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Over40c56.52$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3445445.4%206 W · 248 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf8b…bff8backed Over50c55$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.59958.6%58 W · 41 L+7.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Over47c54.4$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.781,42547.7%680 W · 745 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab9b…3483backed Under51c52.68$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.684544.4%20 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a38…d420backed Under51c51.38$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.1811652.6%61 W · 55 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae94…7efbbacked Over49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.558754.7%321 W · 266 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c08…af98backed Under50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2532654.3%177 W · 149 L-1.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61e4…fb60backed Over51c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.522044.5%98 W · 122 L-14.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xabae…d62dbacked Over50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258145.7%37 W · 44 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb83d…3aa2backed Over51c49.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2524042.9%103 W · 137 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x409b…21e8backed Under51c49.02$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.0225855.8%144 W · 114 L+12.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf35…3fe7backed Under52c46.3$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.226653%35 W · 31 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under50c45.6$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.84,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.