TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Magicof Timberwolves, Magic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$503,871

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $503,871 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 258 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb27…c56ebacked Magic53c195,188$104,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90,938.2887144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Timberwolves47c56,430$26,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,522.130845.8%141 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Timberwolves46c49,440$22,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,741.92,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73ca…8ac1backed Magic55c24,960$13,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,232.182055%11 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf339…80d6backed Timberwolves46c23,400$10,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,764683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.33per pick51cpaid+61.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Timberwolves47c22,512$10,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,580.3924053.8%129 W · 111 L+12.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Magic54c15,500$8,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,129.9858449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Magic54c14,755$7,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,847.264,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Magic54c14,000$7,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,440.081,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb19f…dd0ebacked Timberwolves47c13,313$6,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,256.857365.8%48 W · 25 L+8.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+24%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Timberwolves46c13,141$6,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,073.034,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Magic54c12,963$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,962.961,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves46c12,183$5,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,561.459,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked Timberwolves46c10,232$4,707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,706.938251%195 W · 187 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b9f…e125backed Magic54c10,000$5,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,599.9711252.7%59 W · 53 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Timberwolves46c9,389$4,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,308.934,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ace…ed71backed Magic55c9,026$4,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,061.7366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+26%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6fa…ba6bbacked Magic55c9,004$4,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,051.8450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe759…cf2ebacked Magic55c8,655$4,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,894.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3e8…a544backed Magic55c8,651$4,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,892.952100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc93e…aaa4backed Magic55c8,523$4,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,835.35366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dbe…e685backed Magic55c8,404$4,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,781.8450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda3f…739abacked Magic55c8,313$4,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,740.85333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefd5…f2eabacked Timberwolves47c8,085$3,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,8001060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e8e…f185backed Magic55c8,011$4,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,604.952100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Magic55c7,880$4,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,551.665750.1%329 W · 328 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78bb…591fbacked Timberwolves46c7,691$3,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,537.630446.7%142 W · 162 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e8c…cbf3backed Timberwolves47c7,447$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5001241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4744…b02cbacked Magic55c7,313$4,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,290.853100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Timberwolves47c6,782$3,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,187.5437747.5%179 W · 198 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c74…4ef0backed Timberwolves47c6,383$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00018749.2%92 W · 95 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44d6…9858backed Timberwolves46c6,000$2,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,76012745.7%58 W · 69 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c0c…719ebacked Magic55c5,971$3,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,686.952100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Timberwolves46c5,628$2,585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,584.922,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Timberwolves46c5,550$2,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,560.4628643%123 W · 163 L-1.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78ad…45ccbacked Magic54c5,550$2,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5538361.4%51 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves46c5,444$2,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,477.328,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac1a…f708backed Timberwolves47c5,296$2,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,48919445.4%88 W · 106 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3860…0efcbacked Timberwolves46c4,729$2,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,175.1412950.4%65 W · 64 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12f8…396ebacked Magic55c4,557$2,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,050.652100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb502…9df5backed Magic55c4,298$2,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,934.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc37…2f65backed Timberwolves47c4,255$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00041649.8%207 W · 209 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bb0…d4ccbacked Magic55c4,002$2,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,800.92100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Magic53c3,761$1,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,767.5445850.4%231 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x24ec…d458backed Timberwolves45c3,461$1,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,557.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc869…8a6ebacked Magic54c3,333$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,533.3312951.9%67 W · 62 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Magic54c3,000$1,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3801,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Magic53c3,000$1,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,41043348.5%210 W · 223 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x25e8…74dabacked Magic55c2,940$1,617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,323450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f03…5ad0backed Timberwolves45c2,875$1,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,293.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc13…fe0bbacked Timberwolves45c2,852$1,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,283.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5005…06fabacked Timberwolves45c2,831$1,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,273.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x102f…a8cdbacked Timberwolves45c2,827$1,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,272.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x140c…bdcbbacked Timberwolves45c2,820$1,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,26910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Timberwolves46c2,805$1,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,281.176,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86bb…54ebbacked Magic55c2,799$1,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,259.551361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+20.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99d2…5469backed Timberwolves45c2,796$1,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,258.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x718d…3b52backed Timberwolves45c2,790$1,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,255.530%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe09a…aef4backed Timberwolves45c2,773$1,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,247.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf362…c0febacked Timberwolves45c2,730$1,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,228.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf322…b130backed Timberwolves45c2,711$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,219.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdae8…3172backed Timberwolves45c2,663$1,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,198.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x052e…4ca6backed Timberwolves45c2,648$1,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,191.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd224…a608backed Timberwolves45c2,621$1,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,179.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6d45backed Timberwolves45c2,610$1,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,174.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cd1…50e9backed Timberwolves45c2,595$1,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,167.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x253d…aa62backed Timberwolves46c2,587$1,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,190.0658347%274 W · 309 L-12.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb87…cba9backed Timberwolves45c2,560$1,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,15210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb020…b918backed Timberwolves45c2,550$1,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,147.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb6c…8218backed Timberwolves45c2,549$1,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,147.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Timberwolves46c2,548$1,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,17270246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbd4…b0abbacked Timberwolves45c2,506$1,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,127.710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2991…d81dbacked Timberwolves45c2,478$1,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,115.110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x445e…1f15backed Timberwolves45c2,477$1,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,114.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7deb…f304backed Timberwolves45c2,475$1,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,113.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17dd…9cd6backed Timberwolves45c2,455$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,104.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4644…6e01backed Timberwolves45c2,448$1,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,101.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4dc6…18a3backed Timberwolves45c2,448$1,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,101.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5df…cfebbacked Timberwolves45c2,436$1,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,096.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc930…7deabacked Timberwolves45c2,418$1,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,088.110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5adf…fd34backed Timberwolves45c2,416$1,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,087.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf777…1c0dbacked Timberwolves45c2,412$1,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,085.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3571…20a2backed Timberwolves45c2,410$1,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,084.520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa733…a40ebacked Timberwolves45c2,409$1,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,084.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd913…2783backed Timberwolves45c2,401$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,080.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfa9…700ebacked Timberwolves45c2,396$1,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,078.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21a2…4338backed Timberwolves45c2,395$1,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,077.7520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3209…5cecbacked Timberwolves45c2,395$1,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,077.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2f5…4eafbacked Timberwolves45c2,386$1,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,073.710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a3d…56e1backed Timberwolves45c2,373$1,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,067.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb591…e005backed Timberwolves45c2,366$1,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,064.710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0226…a7f1backed Timberwolves45c2,350$1,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,057.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa26d…78f1backed Timberwolves45c2,320$1,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9062…dbf8backed Timberwolves45c2,280$1,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43f9…61e2backed Timberwolves45c2,251$1,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,012.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba3b…522ebacked Timberwolves45c2,246$1,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,010.710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8738…e9cbbacked Timberwolves45c2,228$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Timberwolves47c2,128$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00056453.9%304 W · 260 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed8f…5aa7backed Timberwolves46c2,126$978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$977.7817144.4%76 W · 95 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbab6…6d81backed Timberwolves45c2,113$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.