TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Timberwolves: O/U 223.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,058

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,058 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2b46…684dbacked Under58c3,360$1,949 inWon+$1,411.021,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over49c1,961$961 inLost-$960.782,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over58c1,694$977 inLost-$977.073,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Under50c843$422 inWon+$421.595651.5%492 W · 464 L+23.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x955f…2a6fbacked Over54c703.54$380 inLost-$379.911136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-28.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under46c641.31$298 inWon+$343.89,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over50c527.99$265 inLost-$264.852,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6b4…e861backed Over50c297.16$149 inLost-$148.587047.1%33 W · 37 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1346…0448backed Over43c249.97$107 inLost-$107.4915534.2%53 W · 102 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Under51c236.65$121 inWon+$115.961,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over51c187.38$96 inLost-$95.563,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under49c187.38$92 inWon+$95.561,63448.1%786 W · 848 L+5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under57c167.99$96 inWon+$71.673,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Over40c105.57$43 inLost-$42.71,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0307…7ab8backed Under57c101.25$58 inWon+$43.1345452%236 W · 218 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over42c54.67$23 inLost-$22.984,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b9e…eb82backed Under59c53.97$32 inWon+$21.9534248.8%167 W · 175 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Over43c50.84$22 inLost-$21.8624138.6%93 W · 148 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd745…223abacked Over48c45.6$22 inLost-$21.891450%7 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Over41c42.37$17 inLost-$17.3745445.4%206 W · 248 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Under59c42.37$25 inWon+$17.3765872.8%479 W · 179 L+46.1wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9c06…8b38backed Under66c30.18$20 inWon+$10.251266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over54c30.11$16 inLost-$16.264,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Over50c25.25$13 inLost-$12.621,42547.7%680 W · 745 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.