TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$833,160

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $833,160 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 624 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Under56c44,809$25,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,809.0936549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Over45c43,644$19,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,425.3954539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over48c24,926$12,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,082.864,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1895…38edbacked Under50c10,016$5,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,0082100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+98%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x409d…ef8dbacked Over50c9,984$4,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,99210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc2b…8b21backed Under50c9,880$4,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,940250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dc8…da92backed Under56c9,828$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,327.62646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e13…29ccbacked Over50c9,800$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,90010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff84…a464backed Under50c9,416$4,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,7082100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick50cpaid+102%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeae8…5c7bbacked Over50c9,344$4,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,67210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0755…9159backed Over50c9,264$4,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,63210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccde…470dbacked Over50c9,248$4,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,62410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4220…9c67backed Under50c9,140$4,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,570250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85c5…28d2backed Over50c9,020$4,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,51010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x251f…1fa6backed Under50c8,764$4,382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,382333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f2b…3637backed Under50c8,540$4,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,270250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3b4…0406backed Over50c8,524$4,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,26210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x634d…87a1backed Over50c8,456$4,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,22810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb91b…0d74backed Over50c8,132$4,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,06610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37f7…d164backed Over50c7,880$3,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,94010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd8e…adb8backed Over50c7,320$3,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,66010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6aa2…1e0fbacked Under50c6,584$3,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,292333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1d1…f036backed Under50c6,552$3,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,276450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4ad…f3cabacked Over50c6,520$3,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,26010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23b6…3eeebacked Over50c5,401$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,700.483046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4f7…7093backed Under50c5,120$2,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5602100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+98%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0de3…0968backed Over50c4,940$2,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,470250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb60f…237abacked Under50c4,884$2,442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4422100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x94af…abd9backed Over50c4,804$2,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under55c4,658$2,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,117.759,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39fb…269ebacked Over50c4,628$2,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,31410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd53…d831backed Over50c4,606$2,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,303250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c98…186dbacked Over47c4,175$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9608444%37 W · 47 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7620…157cbacked Over50c4,144$2,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,07210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5037…ba29backed Over50c4,090$2,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,04510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed Over45c4,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8006939.1%27 W · 42 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-20.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Over44c3,957$1,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,741.366248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbeda…7266backed Under50c3,940$1,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,970333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Under51c3,878$1,978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,900.481,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x557a…16f6backed Under50c3,656$1,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,828785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.35per pick51cpaid+70.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over45c3,163$1,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,421.823,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc5ac…2a18backed Over48c3,142$1,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50817850%89 W · 89 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66cc…7135backed Under52c3,135$1,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,505.0121250.5%107 W · 105 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over49c2,911$1,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,431.444,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fcd…de1cbacked Over50c2,594$1,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,29710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2ab…d258backed Under50c2,577$1,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,288.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff55…8cf3backed Over50c2,577$1,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,288.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe099…458dbacked Under50c2,577$1,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,288.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce5f…51e7backed Under50c2,570$1,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,285757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae56…f765backed Under50c2,533$1,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,266.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3357…2a31backed Over50c2,531$1,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,265.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ed6…b192backed Over50c2,530$1,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,26510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa18d…bbeabacked Over50c2,528$1,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,26410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4a9…dfe5backed Over50c2,527$1,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,263.520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe42f…f4cdbacked Under50c2,523$1,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,261.5540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3010…f72fbacked Under50c2,523$1,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,261.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2855…95a2backed Over50c2,518$1,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa597…2c13backed Over50c2,511$1,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,255.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd301…9eafbacked Under50c2,500$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,250250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd42a…2e15backed Under50c2,499$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,249.5666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+31.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3181…0638backed Under50c2,496$1,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,248771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick50cpaid+45.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc48c…d633backed Under50c2,495$1,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,247.51154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ddb…c2d1backed Under50c2,495$1,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,247.5850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42d3…a09fbacked Over50c2,492$1,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,24610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x192d…00edbacked Under50c2,491$1,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,245.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5677…b90dbacked Over50c2,489$1,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,244.520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7302…e0c4backed Under50c2,488$1,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,244250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65ba…0795backed Under50c2,487$1,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,243.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa564…a678backed Over50c2,470$1,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,23510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf29c…5ba0backed Under50c2,470$1,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,235771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+42.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf811…5eddbacked Over50c2,468$1,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,23410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb3b…b77cbacked Over50c2,467$1,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,233.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa80…50c2backed Over50c2,465$1,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,232.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1c8…4b3dbacked Over50c2,464$1,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,23220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d15…53c8backed Over50c2,460$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,23010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3c2…ebbebacked Over50c2,460$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,23010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadb7…28c1backed Under50c2,457$1,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,228.5757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+13.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x81b1…1a25backed Under50c2,452$1,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,226250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb82…2022backed Under50c2,447$1,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,223.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+34.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18ec…e045backed Under50c2,443$1,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,221.5862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+24.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8362…41d4backed Under50c2,443$1,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,221.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dcc…a610backed Under50c2,440$1,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,220333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd467…2c4dbacked Over50c2,414$1,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa753…5fadbacked Over50c2,413$1,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,206.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x124d…f14cbacked Over50c2,411$1,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,205.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf35f…1652backed Under50c2,409$1,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,204.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63ea…1b03backed Over50c2,408$1,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb580…4ecebacked Under50c2,404$1,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,202250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4daa…db78backed Under50c2,400$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,200785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.32per pick54cpaid+60.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5928…217ebacked Over50c2,399$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c44…8a5abacked Over50c2,398$1,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,19910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b4…fe78backed Under50c2,398$1,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,199450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8087…76b9backed Under50c2,398$1,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,199250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1950…03d6backed Under50c2,397$1,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,198.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd657…189cbacked Over50c2,396$1,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,198333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9260…6cc0backed Over50c2,396$1,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,19810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b2…1ee7backed Over50c2,394$1,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,19710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1511…3a8bbacked Over50c2,394$1,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,19710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32d7…e1d4backed Over50c2,394$1,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,19710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6d5…c97dbacked Under50c2,393$1,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,196.5475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+54.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.