TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Timberwolves: O/U 221.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,872

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,872 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3502…e42cbacked Over51c446.25$226 inLost-$226.2977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.24per pick54cpaid+42.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Under49c400$196 inWon+$2041,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Under41c370.83$151 inWon+$219.7865872.8%479 W · 179 L+46.1wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0307…7ab8backed Under49c251.17$123 inWon+$128.2545452%236 W · 218 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x95b7…5033backed Over70c249.99$174 inLost-$1741040%4 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid+64.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under50c236.26$118 inWon+$118.293,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Over47c133.2$62 inLost-$62.061,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked Over54c100$54 inLost-$5424955.8%139 W · 110 L+0.7wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over29c88$26 inLost-$25.5565630.2%198 W · 458 L-86.7wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-42.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over47c86.25$41 inLost-$40.549,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over50c80.48$40 inLost-$40.242,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93e3…e590backed Over50c52.12$26 inLost-$26.066437.5%24 W · 40 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under24c49.85$12 inWon+$37.8952230.3%158 W · 364 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under50c31.03$16 inWon+$15.522,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe825…39b7backed Over50c30.66$15 inLost-$15.332927.6%8 W · 21 L-5.4wins-0.19per pick46cpaid-40%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Under48c22.56$11 inWon+$11.688937.1%33 W · 56 L+7.9wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+12.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb28a…ba10backed Over50c20.44$10 inLost-$10.221450%7 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x784f…7593backed Over50c20.44$10 inLost-$10.221650%8 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43e7…80d0backed Over50c20.44$10 inLost-$10.221450%7 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.