TailMyPicks
Market

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Magicof Timberwolves, Magic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$80,565

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,565 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb27…c56ebacked Magic45c54,644$24,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,054.2487144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked Timberwolves55c30,000$16,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,50038251%195 W · 187 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6368…6dc8backed Timberwolves55c9,741$5,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,357.7210352.4%54 W · 49 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-11.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Timberwolves56c5,902$3,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,301.542,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Timberwolves55c5,468$3,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,003.724,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves55c5,408$2,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,958.329,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Magic44c5,237$2,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,932.894,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc37…2f65backed Timberwolves55c3,636$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00041649.8%207 W · 209 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Timberwolves48c1,513$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.813,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Magic45c1,209$543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$665.933,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e16…0127backed Magic45c1,110$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.4922143%95 W · 126 L-12.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Magic47c1,077$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.172,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe544…3cfcbacked Timberwolves55c870.76$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.9210251%52 W · 50 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Magic46c845$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.046,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Timberwolves5c834.07$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.661,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed45…3de8backed Magic45c700$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3857454.1%40 W · 34 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8de5…e8bbbacked Timberwolves40c699.98$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.9913154.2%71 W · 60 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Timberwolves55c636.36$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35019951.8%103 W · 96 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03a0…ff20backed Timberwolves54c631.71$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.121855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Magic45c629.99$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.565750.1%329 W · 328 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6276…7f2ebacked Timberwolves5c600$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3019166.5%127 W · 64 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Timberwolves57c551$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.071,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Magic60c510.11$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.0456646.5%263 W · 303 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Timberwolves55c503$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.6573649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7be1…200ebacked Timberwolves55c500$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27536449.7%181 W · 183 L-11.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Timberwolves55c499.99$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.994,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Timberwolves55c484$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.21,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Timberwolves54c407.4$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22040243.8%176 W · 226 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Magic45c399.97$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.9880737.7%304 W · 503 L-33.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ff5…f136backed Timberwolves55c363.64$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20026048.1%125 W · 135 L-15.1wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Magic45c319.56$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.7645646.7%213 W · 243 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Magic47c305.05$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.6854549.5%270 W · 275 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Magic59c273$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.523,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Magic46c267.26$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.3257650%288 W · 288 L+1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed8f…5aa7backed Magic46c267.13$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.2517144.4%76 W · 95 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Timberwolves57c263.74$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501,38954.9%762 W · 627 L+16.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c46…fc02backed Timberwolves55c232.45$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.17450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+80.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Timberwolves55c218$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.951354.2%278 W · 235 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa558…dc8cbacked Timberwolves55c181.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002236.4%8 W · 14 L-3.4wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-32.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Timberwolves55c180$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0307…7ab8backed Magic57c164.11$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.8345452%236 W · 218 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Magic45c160$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.156547.8%270 W · 295 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2a0…1f3dbacked Magic41c120.83$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.8316725.7%43 W · 124 L-12.4wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-28.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x187b…8848backed Magic45c111.22$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.2272250.6%365 W · 357 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Magic43c101$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.5724138.6%93 W · 148 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Timberwolves55c91.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5061056.1%342 W · 268 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4147…902abacked Timberwolves56c89.36$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5017342.8%74 W · 99 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Timberwolves41c88.41$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.321,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbcf…20aebacked Magic46c80$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.228943.3%125 W · 164 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04b4…8d0bbacked Magic45c79.89$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.9457250%286 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea1c…b810backed Timberwolves57c71$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.476852.9%36 W · 32 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9572…ea8ebacked Magic44c71$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.767960.8%48 W · 31 L+8.2wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+19.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Timberwolves57c70$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8361253.1%325 W · 287 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Magic45c61.86$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.161,17050.3%588 W · 582 L+46.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Timberwolves61c60$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7861939.6%245 W · 374 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Timberwolves62c60$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.238540.3%155 W · 230 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Timberwolves64c60$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2146940.3%189 W · 280 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Timberwolves54c57.36$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.971,63448.1%786 W · 848 L+5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Magic44c57.24$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.171,42547.7%680 W · 745 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45f1…0075backed Timberwolves35c56.94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204337.2%16 W · 27 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Magic45c56.13$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.874,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bd6…bf96backed Timberwolves54c56$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2423051.3%118 W · 112 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Timberwolves55c52.45$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8564844.8%290 W · 358 L-32.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4cd9…a643backed Timberwolves55c46.71$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6910145.5%46 W · 55 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbaea…4bbfbacked Timberwolves54c46.3$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540541%166 W · 239 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Timberwolves55c46.28$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.452,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x891f…88bfbacked Magic46c43.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4823249.6%115 W · 117 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7509…d031backed Timberwolves55c42$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.320847.1%98 W · 110 L-9.5wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9db2…cc8cbacked Timberwolves50c39.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2017153.8%92 W · 79 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x263f…c744backed Timberwolves55c36.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9810357.3%59 W · 44 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4d8…19c5backed Timberwolves56c35.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2024358%141 W · 102 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7100…b346backed Timberwolves56c35.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020147.8%96 W · 105 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0642…8c68backed Magic46c32.61$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6127050%135 W · 135 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x117d…6542backed Timberwolves55c27.27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1556454.3%306 W · 258 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d57…2b4ebacked Magic46c27$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5853945.3%244 W · 295 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Timberwolves56c25.43$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2439943.1%172 W · 227 L-17.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Magic53c25.42$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.051,55437.3%579 W · 975 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Magic49c23.52$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4102…d397backed Timberwolves56c21.47$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+24.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4861…4fcabacked Timberwolves55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1114858.1%86 W · 62 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf11b…3fe3backed Timberwolves55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116056.7%34 W · 26 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b5c…ab22backed Timberwolves54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.86053.3%32 W · 28 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8a6…541ebacked Timberwolves56c19.07$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.68450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.