TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Champions League · resolved market

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$555,249

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $555,249 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 528 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Champions League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb5fd…8c6dbacked Under46c133,670$61,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72,300.86666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+15.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee0d…57abbacked Over55c38,130$20,962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,961.754654.3%25 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc6f…b258backed Under46c32,617$15,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,612.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Under45c23,997$10,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,313.063641.7%15 W · 21 L-3.5wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-22.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6f9a…8cfabacked Over54c17,670$9,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,541.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0936…6c02backed Over54c14,815$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,000250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over54c14,167$7,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,646.7226047.7%124 W · 136 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over55c13,918$7,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,653.7913245.5%60 W · 72 L+7.5wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+38.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over51c13,851$7,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,023.171,99443.9%875 W · 1,119 L+1.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0626…03f4backed Over54c13,031$7,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,036.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Over54c13,028$7,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,035.53839.5%15 W · 23 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-21.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1b5e…83f8backed Under49c11,548$5,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,889.364100%4 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+99.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1ba1…1ce4backed Over54c11,111$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,0001540%6 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-23.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb177…1914backed Over54c11,111$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,0001656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0416…616cbacked Over0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over42c9,706$4,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,051.081,51140.2%608 W · 903 L-6.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed Under48c9,109$4,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,779.1310742.1%45 W · 62 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb19f…dd0ebacked Under45c8,890$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,889.731650%8 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Over54c7,394$3,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,992.592128.6%6 W · 15 L-4.5wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-44.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under51c6,238$3,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,072.5534342.3%145 W · 198 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb784…61d0backed Over54c6,168$3,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,330.842552%13 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dea…3792backed Under57c6,168$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,667.874573.3%33 W · 12 L+6.9wins+0.15per pick58cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Over54c6,140$3,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,315.616144.1%71 W · 90 L-13.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-19.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7cc9…18c4backed Over54c6,000$3,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,239.991844.4%8 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over51c5,000$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,55028543.9%125 W · 160 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+3.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd146…9bf0backed Under47c5,000$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,649.9715032.7%49 W · 101 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-5.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked Over55c4,999$2,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,749.682458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Under50c4,903$2,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,459.0515252%79 W · 73 L-11.9wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-11.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Over50c4,863$2,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,431.55552.7%29 W · 26 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Under45c4,822$2,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,650.8429746.5%138 W · 159 L-1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46cf…42eabacked Over54c4,181$2,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,257.741172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick55cpaid+32.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed Under48c4,062$1,948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,113.542540%10 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-26.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Over52c3,800$1,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,976.113548.9%66 W · 69 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5d1…cdc9backed Under45c3,751$1,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,063.052035%7 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Under46c3,563$1,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,910.3826645.9%122 W · 144 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f45…ab6abacked Over6c3,548$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.35922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick14cpaid+243.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Over54c3,473$1,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,875.423839.5%15 W · 23 L-3.8wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-20.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over54c3,197$1,726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,726.1959741.7%249 W · 348 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38b0…060cbacked Over53c2,775$1,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,470.592445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Under47c2,545$1,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,348.681450%7 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Over54c2,183$1,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,178.722254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under46c2,100$956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,143.638748.3%187 W · 200 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Under46c2,100$957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,143.2111649.1%57 W · 59 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Over56c2,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1207750.6%39 W · 38 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dcb…8709backed Over56c1,965$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-43.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0100…f6dcbacked Over54c1,852$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00040%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcc1d…faffbacked Over54c1,851$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.54366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+36.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb47f…d792backed Over53c1,844$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$977.321747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick53cpaid+0.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc89f…695bbacked Over54c1,820$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.68333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbd6…cd9abacked Over55c1,818$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d7f…3ef5backed Over55c1,818$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…d7a0backed Over40c1,700$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6802326.1%6 W · 17 L-4.9wins-0.21per pick47cpaid-46.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xbf26…6fe2backed Over56c1,655$927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9274047.5%19 W · 21 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-14.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a94…769cbacked Over52c1,538$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8003625%9 W · 27 L-4.7wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-30.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed Over1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+14.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa742…68c5backed Over56c1,500$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8401723.5%4 W · 13 L-3.8wins-0.22per pick46cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Under60c1,500$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60014953%79 W · 70 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Over56c1,500$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.9814532.4%47 W · 98 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fef…5946backed Over55c1,498$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8243764.9%24 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+33.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2057…14eabacked Over22c1,487$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.23333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-47.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfde…3f9cbacked Over55c1,345$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735.76250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15a6…bf5dbacked Over50c1,302$651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651.232429.2%7 W · 17 L-3.7wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-3.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x0a0c…0beebacked Over16c1,250$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003050%15 W · 15 L+5.7wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+48.2%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Over56c1,071$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6002740.7%11 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-22.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8907…a996backed Under48c1,050$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.92161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+17.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.014020%8 W · 32 L-9.4wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-59.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Over56c1,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5602638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6340…1bd0backed Over54c1,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.958043.8%35 W · 45 L+11.3wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+60.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Under45c999.96$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.981942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked Over52c961.08$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005646.4%26 W · 30 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd239…2083backed Over55c960.1$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5281747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Under47c936.77$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.777065.7%46 W · 24 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdff2…c7c9backed Under75c921.83$693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57a4…f0c0backed Over56c893.14$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008556.5%48 W · 37 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a9a…c308backed Over56c892.86$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked Under54c888$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.925749.1%28 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb58…86a4backed Under47c865.93$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.133551.4%18 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+25.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0dd6…5f62backed Under45c800$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.384860.4%29 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe105…1b21backed Over53c759.46$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001040%4 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Over56c750$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4207435.1%26 W · 48 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5cd9…51d0backed Over40c750$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004934.7%17 W · 32 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ed9…9949backed Over54c750$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.343161.3%19 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ff0…271bbacked Over44c747$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.382454.2%13 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84e2…a56ebacked Under47c710$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.413100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+113%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd2c8…d506backed Under46c706.74$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.741070%7 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick46cpaid+43.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1997…0d61backed Over54c700$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2419…1e60backed Under48c680.19$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.76560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9044…a0f1backed Over54c650$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35130%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0644…05debacked Over51c640$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.42634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe481…b24abacked Under47c640$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.39366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+29.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd3f…44f1backed Over54c611.82$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3331369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.19per pick50cpaid+53.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb7fd…6c23backed Over20c600$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-56.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Under71c599.99$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1743262.5%20 W · 12 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+33.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x088c…65c6backed Over52c577.04$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over54c555.68$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020639.3%81 W · 125 L+25.6wins+0.12per pick27cpaid+43.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4306…618abacked Over56c535.71$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003948.7%19 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid+1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Over57c527$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.392828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-37.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc62d…8fd8backed Over42c523.24$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.761030%3 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick52cpaid-48.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa35f…b58fbacked Over40c521.65$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.929841.8%41 W · 57 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e5a…154cbacked Over48c520.83$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2504445.5%20 W · 24 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-14.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.