Champions League · resolved market
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdaa357d12e0fb18e40724740e481f381d3e5f6b441aa319075333027fadc18cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bayer 04 Leverkusenof Arsenal FC, Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,561
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,561 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 80c | 2,831$2,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.08 | 260 | 47.7%124 W · 136 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…9d04backed Arsenal FC | 19c | 2,330$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Arsenal FC | 20c | 2,153$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.87 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Arsenal FC | 19c | 1,297$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.95 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Arsenal FC | 15c | 844.96$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.14 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Arsenal FC | 20c | 750$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 201 | 33.8%68 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Arsenal FC | 17c | 657.32$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 206 | 39.3%81 W · 125 L | +25.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd68d…945dbacked Arsenal FC | 19c | 599.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked Arsenal FC | 20c | 505.3$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.9 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Arsenal FC | 20c | 500.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa26e…d280backed Arsenal FC | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…720fbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 80c | 499.99$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Arsenal FC | 19c | 499.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.93 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | +11.3wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6404…2a20backed Arsenal FC | 12c | 473.08$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.23 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c55…5445backed Arsenal FC | 19c | 399.85$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe3…949cbacked Arsenal FC | 20c | 200.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 22cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Arsenal FC | 19c | 195.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8549…41f8backed Arsenal FC | 20c | 190.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…7016backed Arsenal FC | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Arsenal FC | 19c | 132.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +90%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked Arsenal FC | 20c | 115$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed Arsenal FC | 20c | 108.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -6.4wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…edcabacked Arsenal FC | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 146 | 42.5%62 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Arsenal FC | 19c | 98.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 129 | 35.7%46 W · 83 L | -12.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…4f62backed Arsenal FC | 21c | 95.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Arsenal FC | 18c | 94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 80c | 89.42$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 79c | 79.43$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4796…79fcbacked Arsenal FC | 20c | 75.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Arsenal FC | 20c | 66.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 142 | 20.4%29 W · 113 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…6c97backed Arsenal FC | 19c | 58.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 88 | 62.5%55 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a0…3762backed Arsenal FC | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…bf48backed Arsenal FC | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)this page
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)Arsenal FC won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-2.5)Arsenal FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.