Champions League · resolved market
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e47fd67f0720e28b73602d7ede3063d3a58b0a698bcd60aee92a616b11552f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $125,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,038 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3333…15bdbacked Over | 17c | 46,858$7,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,965.82 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 11c | 5,941$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.03 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…769cbacked Over | 16c | 1,489$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Over | 15c | 1,249$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.31 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked Over | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…5068backed Over | 16c | 999.98$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +26%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Over | 16c | 999.29$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.84 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | +11.3wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 17c | 882.35$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 17c | 660$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.16 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 17c | 417.65$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Over | 13c | 405$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.67 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…8c3ebacked Over | 16c | 305.42$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +35%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26e…d280backed Over | 17c | 294.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Over | 17c | 287.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0391…ef9bbacked Over | 16c | 281.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2f…a3d8backed Over | 15c | 205.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Over | 16c | 201.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 16c | 200.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 206 | 39.3%81 W · 125 L | +25.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Over | 16c | 198.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 14c | 160.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 236 | 37.3%88 W · 148 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Over | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -6.1wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Over | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…7016backed Over | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c63…9c7fbacked Over | 16c | 92.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15bc…398cbacked Over | 17c | 87.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…4f62backed Over | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecc7…01e0backed Over | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)Arsenal FC won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-2.5)Arsenal FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.