TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$116,918

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,918 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa710…23c4backed Over51c100,000$50,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,014.6115054.7%82 W · 68 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under49c64,208$31,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,474.8356152%292 W · 269 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15a6…bf5dbacked Under49c26,472$12,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,971.341369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.3wins+0.25per pick44cpaid+95%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Under51c3,922$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00031550.8%160 W · 155 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over49c2,113$1,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,085.622,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed Under52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,039.972142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under50c1,849$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$924.4168449.9%341 W · 343 L-3.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Over50c1,600$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80027150.2%136 W · 135 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf43…ae9abacked Under52c1,565$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813.63354.5%18 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fa3…172fbacked Under49c1,483$727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726.676256.5%35 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Under49c1,224$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60011045.5%50 W · 60 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Under49c1,130$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.525242.3%22 W · 30 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-19.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Over48c1,042$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.6253050.6%268 W · 262 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over49c922.32$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.3159450.8%302 W · 292 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Over48c789$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.3543456%243 W · 191 L+16.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7851…d471backed Over49c499.99$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255887.5%7 W · 1 L+3.3wins+0.41per pick47cpaid+84.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under51c453.71$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.3991653.9%494 W · 422 L+39.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Under49c438.66$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.0321754.8%119 W · 98 L+0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbff9…009dbacked Under49c408.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004454.5%24 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x480e…71e9backed Under53c403.77$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Over49c387.76$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.761,09351.8%566 W · 527 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under49c375$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.271,19050.7%603 W · 587 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x033f…b8cabacked Under51c304.12$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.094862.5%30 W · 18 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Over48c217.98$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.3513336.1%48 W · 85 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Over48c210$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.3562447.3%295 W · 329 L+0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52fc…6c84backed Under52c209.81$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1093759.5%22 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe45a…95ebbacked Under51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1022161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+15.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f96…123cbacked Under50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003040%12 W · 18 L-4.3wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-27.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x84ef…cdd9backed Under51c196.34$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10015649.4%77 W · 79 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over48c192.32$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.011,09250.4%550 W · 542 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Under52c189.95$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9969653.4%372 W · 324 L-16.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fa5…f8efbacked Under51c182$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.82560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+24.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaddc…b43dbacked Over49c180$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa30f…b10ebacked Under51c149.99$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03d4…6999backed Over49c136.32$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.662245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa71b…889cbacked Under52c134.73$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.062236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x04e7…4674backed Over49c124.34$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.541540%6 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-25.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3d8…5d40backed Under52c122.88$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.92245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa20…e7e3backed Under53c122.73$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over51c120.42$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.7462951.2%322 W · 307 L+18.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3d3…bd58backed Over48c104.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.172951.7%15 W · 14 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+39.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x46a0…f721backed Over49c102.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.048646.5%40 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b8d…bb92backed Over48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5224350.2%122 W · 121 L-13.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-9.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc212…c8ebbacked Under52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528050%40 W · 40 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x403d…2709backed Under51c98.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010262.7%64 W · 38 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2be0…1538backed Under52c97.87$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.891369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.19per pick50cpaid+34.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x397e…fb3abacked Over49c97.03$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.571850%9 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x968d…6947backed Over48c96$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.92955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4aa2…8351backed Over51c90$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.1250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe403…3d50backed Over49c79.66$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.9311252.7%59 W · 53 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc47…9bd1backed Under51c77$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.27250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe824…65b4backed Over49c73.8$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.6435553%188 W · 167 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50e3…c0bbbacked Under50c70$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd155…8250backed Under49c69.87$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2420857.7%120 W · 88 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Under49c69$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.742,31446.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa33c…1b33backed Under49c63.54$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1319356%108 W · 85 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Under49c63.54$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1327453.6%147 W · 127 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a87…fb21backed Under52c61.54$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3238551.4%198 W · 187 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dcd…74c6backed Over52c58.8$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.463458.8%20 W · 14 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xddf5…aaa3backed Over48c52.08$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.083444.1%15 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93e3…e590backed Under57c52.04$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6611233.9%38 W · 74 L-9.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-22.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x99b8…d3e9backed Over51c51$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.992100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6cd6…16abbacked Under52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2630859.4%183 W · 125 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f53…3e61backed Under51c46$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.46250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02a9…642dbacked Under53c45.5$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.07450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Over50c43.57$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.821,10752%576 W · 531 L+63.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+7.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbf9…7560backed Over48c41.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.677647.4%36 W · 40 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb49…1fbebacked Under49c40.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.024060%24 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x035b…3ca0backed Under49c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.62864.3%18 W · 10 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+36%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Over53c39.96$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5923450%117 W · 117 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f5…7465backed Over51c39$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6630…703cbacked Under52c38.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206647%31 W · 35 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9aa5…0f78backed Over51c38$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2927…05fcbacked Under53c37.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+25.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Over48c37$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2415944.7%71 W · 88 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf10e…4c13backed Under49c36.14$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.711942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-22.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xefb9…e74fbacked Under51c34.12$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.516647%31 W · 35 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under50c33.68$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.962,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbc5…6314backed Under51c33$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56ed…93aabacked Over51c33$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.17425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-51%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over54c32$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7231448.7%153 W · 161 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d57…2b4ebacked Under49c32$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6817458%101 W · 73 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d44…7b3cbacked Over51c32$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.68366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick29cpaid+55.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e0a…745dbacked Over48c31$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.126145.9%28 W · 33 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ddc…7b90backed Over49c30.61$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.615152.9%27 W · 24 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Over48c30.12$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6660741%249 W · 358 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over43c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.165721.9%144 W · 513 L-105.6wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-54.6%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xa991…f266backed Under50c28.25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149954.5%54 W · 45 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf75d…790bbacked Over51c28$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.72250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf986…6833backed Under49c27.17$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.314358.1%25 W · 18 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3eff…ae12backed Under49c26.84$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.155547.3%26 W · 29 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2482…a721backed Under49c26.2$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.842568%17 W · 8 L+3.7wins+0.15per pick53cpaid+28.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbd0f…48fdbacked Under49c25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.256842.6%29 W · 39 L-6.3wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-19.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7cc3…1e73backed Under52c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133256.3%18 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under49c25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3786049.2%423 W · 437 L+1.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32c2…d317backed Under51c24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1a…26c0backed Under51c23.54$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.113658.1%79 W · 57 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xda1c…5527backed Under49c23.41$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.47955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over47c22.63$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9983149.5%411 W · 420 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x737e…431bbacked Over51c21$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.292100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick53cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.