NHL · resolved market
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4bfbb964b7780a5d377ca9644f545c66e2e7249e6def6cc8c7caca40b9a75a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lightningof Lightning, Maple Leafs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,054
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,054 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7705…a442backed Lightning | 45c | 1,004$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.16 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Maple Leafs | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Maple Leafs | 55c | 915.43$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.63 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…9858backed Lightning | 40c | 727.33$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.4 | 291 | 46.7%136 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Lightning | 44c | 600$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.3wins | +0.41per pick | 47cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Maple Leafs | 39c | 212.8$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 226 | 55.8%126 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0112…4fe9backed Lightning | 42c | 147.06$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.06 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 133.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x924d…3429backed Lightning | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…fcc3backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 116.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 113.33$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 215 | 60.9%131 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Lightning | 45c | 111.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.25 | 177 | 55.9%99 W · 78 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Maple Leafs | 60c | 85$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67be…8a3bbacked Lightning | 43c | 81.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Maple Leafs | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Maple Leafs | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 212 | 43.4%92 W · 120 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Maple Leafs | 61c | 44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 317 | 53.3%169 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Lightning | 43c | 38.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Maple Leafs | 60c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Maple Leafs | 56c | 30.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Maple Leafs | 60c | 26.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Maple Leafs | 60c | 23.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…2db8backed Maple Leafs | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Maple Leafs | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Maple Leafs | 58c | 18.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 217 | 54.8%119 W · 98 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)this page
- Lightning vs. Maple LeafsLightning won
- Lightning vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.