NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Maple Leafs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4a67ab03b15031804645c6d11d7a73145fd95b241f24334cee65a6e1314035d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lightningof Lightning, Maple Leafs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $423,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $423,837 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 371 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Maple Leafs | 35c | 143,500$50,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,224.7 | 485 | 45.4%220 W · 265 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Lightning | 65c | 141,115$91,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49,390.17 | 403 | 51.9%209 W · 194 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Maple Leafs | 35c | 20,000$7,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,999.9 | 224 | 43.8%98 W · 126 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Maple Leafs | 35c | 18,215$6,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,337.7 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e8…1697backed Lightning | 64c | 15,407$9,858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,548.73 | 670 | 51%342 W · 328 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Maple Leafs | 36c | 11,661$4,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,185.91 | 619 | 50.1%310 W · 309 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…a188backed Lightning | 64c | 10,000$6,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,600.15 | 617 | 48.5%299 W · 318 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf62b…844abacked Lightning | 66c | 9,872$6,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,371.79 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Lightning | 62c | 9,646$5,964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,682.86 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Lightning | 66c | 8,777$5,793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,984.25 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +9.1wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…ae70backed Maple Leafs | 35c | 7,951$2,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,761.43 | 120 | 47.5%57 W · 63 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Lightning | 71c | 5,512$3,941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,571.36 | 752 | 51.7%389 W · 363 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Maple Leafs | 36c | 5,484$1,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,988.9 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…cb68backed Maple Leafs | 38c | 4,847$1,842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,841.94 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8738…222bbacked Lightning | 66c | 4,546$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,546.17 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Maple Leafs | 35c | 4,257$1,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,489.62 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Lightning | 63c | 4,000$2,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,480.11 | 1,087 | 45.1%490 W · 597 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Lightning | 61c | 3,947$2,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,553.14 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Lightning | 65c | 3,764$2,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,317.27 | 367 | 48%176 W · 191 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Maple Leafs | 16c | 3,400$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.38 | 603 | 37.5%226 W · 377 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eba…3feabacked Lightning | 63c | 3,175$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83ab…3d56backed Lightning | 62c | 3,000$1,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,139.98 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Maple Leafs | 3c | 2,969$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.93 | 544 | 18%98 W · 446 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked Maple Leafs | 35c | 2,920$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf6…5200backed Lightning | 65c | 2,858$1,857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.46 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc339…ba5bbacked Lightning | 63c | 2,500$1,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$925.47 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Maple Leafs | 34c | 2,493$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.17 | 1,301 | 52.6%684 W · 617 L | +23.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ab…c40ebacked Maple Leafs | 39c | 2,415$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.7 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Lightning | 65c | 2,290$1,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.5 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Maple Leafs | 34c | 2,000$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 836 | 52.8%441 W · 395 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Lightning | 62c | 1,837$1,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.06 | 702 | 49%344 W · 358 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Maple Leafs | 8c | 1,752$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.85 | 393 | 44.8%176 W · 217 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Maple Leafs | 35c | 1,715$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 236 | 42.8%101 W · 135 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x736f…a0a6backed Lightning | 63c | 1,500$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Lightning | 65c | 1,482$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.67 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…434ebacked Maple Leafs | 36c | 1,370$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.36 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Lightning | 74c | 1,366$1,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.51 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Maple Leafs | 37c | 1,335$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.26 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Lightning | 75c | 1,157$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.3 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Lightning | 60c | 1,139$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.1 | 332 | 43.7%145 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Maple Leafs | 35c | 1,132$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.18 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Lightning | 63c | 1,111$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.07 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1e…ff14backed Maple Leafs | 41c | 1,058$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.9 | 480 | 50.6%243 W · 237 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Lightning | 61c | 1,050$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.82 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb3…f766backed Maple Leafs | 37c | 1,010$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.6 | 540 | 47.6%257 W · 283 L | -15.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Maple Leafs | 36c | 1,000$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364 | 321 | 50.8%163 W · 158 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6082…6ce2backed Maple Leafs | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed Maple Leafs | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…9b21backed Maple Leafs | 37c | 999.74$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc08…a137backed Maple Leafs | 34c | 991.86$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.46 | 302 | 59.6%180 W · 122 L | +31.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1a…5abfbacked Maple Leafs | 39c | 990$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.1 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5031…1ffbbacked Maple Leafs | 41c | 955$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.55 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99e4…e4c4backed Maple Leafs | 41c | 939.55$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.22 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe622…ea5ebacked Lightning | 66c | 900.6$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.81 | 223 | 52.9%118 W · 105 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Maple Leafs | 37c | 881.2$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.04 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Maple Leafs | 37c | 853.42$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.77 | 632 | 49.5%313 W · 319 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Maple Leafs | 33c | 831.91$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.53 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Maple Leafs | 30c | 816.54$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.12 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd940…36e3backed Lightning | 63c | 800$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…3180backed Lightning | 65c | 785.45$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.91 | 459 | 55.1%253 W · 206 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x597e…cd70backed Lightning | 65c | 769.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.23 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a17…1b84backed Lightning | 66c | 757.58$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.58 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Maple Leafs | 36c | 754.81$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.17 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…17bfbacked Maple Leafs | 35c | 741.03$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.12 | 254 | 47.2%120 W · 134 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Lightning | 66c | 695.09$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.47 | 294 | 48.6%143 W · 151 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9719…6ffabacked Maple Leafs | 37c | 668.09$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -5.5wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…bc54backed Maple Leafs | 38c | 657.89$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 299 | 46.8%140 W · 159 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Lightning | 64c | 627.65$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.96 | 133 | 36.1%48 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed21…8b3dbacked Maple Leafs | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69d9…9881backed Lightning | 65c | 615.93$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.93 | 306 | 57.8%177 W · 129 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Maple Leafs | 38c | 613$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.49 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb32a…e349backed Maple Leafs | 37c | 600$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Maple Leafs | 34c | 599.96$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.99 | 326 | 48.2%157 W · 169 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x335d…ce5fbacked Maple Leafs | 8c | 577$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.01 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Lightning | 65c | 565$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.75 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Lightning | 65c | 556.16$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.88 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Maple Leafs | 37c | 553.3$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.71 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5140…9951backed Lightning | 65c | 540$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ce…dc3cbacked Maple Leafs | 37c | 540$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Lightning | 65c | 507.69$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.69 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b1…78fdbacked Maple Leafs | 38c | 505$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.9 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4fc…8af7backed Lightning | 65c | 500.03$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.01 | 602 | 49.5%298 W · 304 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f8…f27bbacked Maple Leafs | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Maple Leafs | 36c | 500$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9b…303ebacked Maple Leafs | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaabb…5554backed Lightning | 65c | 499.98$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.99 | 457 | 49.2%225 W · 232 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78f1…e373backed Lightning | 65c | 462$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…e124backed Lightning | 67c | 451.41$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.41 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa576…fb8dbacked Lightning | 63c | 450$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Maple Leafs | 36c | 444.44$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 167 | 56.3%94 W · 73 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3100…9bc9backed Lightning | 65c | 423.33$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.17 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Maple Leafs | 35c | 412.62$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.24 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5d…d375backed Maple Leafs | 3c | 411.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…d1bdbacked Maple Leafs | 38c | 397.63$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf35…2d56backed Lightning | 63c | 396.87$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Lightning | 66c | 394.03$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.03 | 397 | 51.1%203 W · 194 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed Maple Leafs | 36c | 379.97$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.81 | 413 | 54.5%225 W · 188 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Maple Leafs | 33c | 358.67$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.07 | 950 | 49.1%466 W · 484 L | +12.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a5…9f2cbacked Maple Leafs | 38c | 358.59$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6479…5e64backed Lightning | 65c | 355.38$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.38 | 206 | 51%105 W · 101 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Maple Leafsthis page
- Lightning vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.