TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Canadiens vs. Ducks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Ducksof Canadiens, Ducks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,000,736

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,000,736 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,298 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x03e8…1697backed Ducks50c139,844$69,922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69,922.3467051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Canadiens51c122,368$62,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62,190.6848545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7197…14c8backed Ducks54c34,260$18,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,806.636254.8%34 W · 28 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+12.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe8a8…a48ebacked Canadiens51c32,053$16,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,346.729548.4%46 W · 49 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Canadiens50c25,294$12,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,653.8861950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebbb…4214backed Ducks53c24,469$13,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,468.8212835.9%46 W · 82 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Canadiens51c22,000$11,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,2205261.5%32 W · 20 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e3a…3246backed Canadiens46c20,005$9,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,202.244148.8%20 W · 21 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Ducks49c19,365$9,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,876.4210146.5%47 W · 54 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Ducks48c16,839$8,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,753.581,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cdc…b83fbacked Ducks49c16,525$8,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,427.686147.5%29 W · 32 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Ducks49c16,490$8,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,409.9918641.9%78 W · 108 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Canadiens51c16,155$8,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,239.3448549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Canadiens50c14,855$7,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,398.781,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30ce…fdcebacked Ducks69c11,638$8,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,613.2315057.3%86 W · 64 L+14.8wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+44.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Ducks51c10,926$5,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,353.8561748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Ducks51c9,508$4,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,637.8189355.5%496 W · 397 L+67.6wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Canadiens50c8,570$4,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,285.181,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Ducks51c8,227$4,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,011.081,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Ducks63c8,124$5,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,030.6639344.8%176 W · 217 L+23.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+1.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Canadiens49c7,504$3,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,649.491,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Canadiens47c7,272$3,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,411.041,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Ducks49c7,151$3,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,647.011,19050.7%603 W · 587 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Ducks50c7,000$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,50026058.8%153 W · 107 L+17.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Ducks48c6,250$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,25040356.3%227 W · 176 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Canadiens46c6,165$2,836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,835.8217057.6%98 W · 72 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+25.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Canadiens51c6,103$3,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,112.3221755.3%120 W · 97 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Canadiens51c6,000$3,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,059.9933151.7%171 W · 160 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Canadiens47c5,862$2,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,755.037258.3%42 W · 30 L+9.1wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+31.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x29cc…3c29backed Ducks49c5,433$2,662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,770.651127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-43.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x17e0…80aebacked Canadiens47c5,278$2,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,507.2232744%144 W · 183 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Ducks53c5,040$2,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,383.192,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Canadiens50c5,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50027243.4%118 W · 154 L-16.8wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Canadiens49c5,000$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,449.9950049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44d6…9858backed Canadiens49c4,999$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,449.629146.7%136 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Canadiens50c4,934$2,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,469.0245751.6%236 W · 221 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Canadiens51c4,813$2,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,461.1889636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Canadiens29c4,752$1,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,382.3830944.7%138 W · 171 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Canadiens48c4,378$2,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,095.991,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Ducks49c4,000$1,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0401,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x607d…53a1backed Canadiens50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00013446.3%62 W · 72 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Canadiens51c4,000$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,04089547%421 W · 474 L-18.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07aa…deb1backed Canadiens51c3,833$1,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,954.678845.5%40 W · 48 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Ducks49c3,794$1,859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,934.977737.7%29 W · 48 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x348f…a206backed Ducks51c3,259$1,656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,603.427051.4%36 W · 34 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9175…d70fbacked Ducks52c3,170$1,648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,521.562548%12 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Canadiens48c3,059$1,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,477.643,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56c2…17bfbacked Ducks49c3,000$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,53025447.2%120 W · 134 L-1.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Canadiens50c3,000$1,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,484.8460249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed Ducks50c2,750$1,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,386.54450%22 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Ducks57c2,639$1,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,124.21,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Canadiens48c2,528$1,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,205.868252.4%43 W · 39 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed Ducks50c2,500$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,250.28748.3%42 W · 45 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Canadiens50c2,500$1,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,238.8543548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc184…1b61backed Ducks51c2,469$1,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,209.741546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Canadiens39c2,423$934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.9699638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2087…c0aabacked Canadiens50c2,288$1,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,143.771338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-28%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Canadiens51c2,217$1,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,122.9631550.8%160 W · 155 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Canadiens50c2,148$1,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,083.512,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Ducks50c2,133$1,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,075.9162346.9%292 W · 331 L-3.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5bf6…5200backed Canadiens51c2,041$1,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,040.825856.9%33 W · 25 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf62b…844abacked Ducks49c2,041$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.8214654.1%79 W · 67 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Ducks49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,02068449.9%341 W · 343 L-3.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Canadiens50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00083652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Canadiens50c2,000$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.9727850.4%140 W · 138 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaabb…5554backed Canadiens50c2,000$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.3945749.2%225 W · 232 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Canadiens48c1,940$931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$931.233243.7%145 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1e6…1dc1backed Canadiens52c1,800$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9365552.7%29 W · 26 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Canadiens51c1,790$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$910.2466552%346 W · 319 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Canadiens52c1,725$897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8975046%23 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Ducks53c1,571$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745.5175251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d52…834ebacked Ducks49c1,552$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791.522955.2%16 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Ducks48c1,529$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$793.772,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Canadiens50c1,500$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75028152%146 W · 135 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed Ducks49c1,500$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7652142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Canadiens51c1,469$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.1984953.8%457 W · 392 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Canadiens14c1,445$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.627334.4%94 W · 179 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+22%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Canadiens51c1,430$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.344551.2%228 W · 217 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Ducks52c1,238$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.0615145%68 W · 83 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Canadiens47c1,231$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.0341850%209 W · 209 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed Ducks69c1,221$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.5542254.3%229 W · 193 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Canadiens48c1,215$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.8842847.2%202 W · 226 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57ad…3da6backed Ducks50c1,200$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6001233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-37.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa591…5a3fbacked Canadiens50c1,200$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4c7…8b23backed Ducks50c1,200$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+26.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9501…4182backed Canadiens50c1,200$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c96…395fbacked Ducks50c1,200$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6001258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7222…fbfabacked Canadiens50c1,200$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3edb…44a8backed Canadiens50c1,195$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.51136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-36.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6cbf…dd66backed Ducks50c1,195$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.5922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.25per pick48cpaid-57.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd579…65e3backed Ducks50c1,190$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5951163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc37a…cf75backed Canadiens50c1,190$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5951250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdeaf…707dbacked Canadiens50c1,185$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.51346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79f9…692bbacked Ducks50c1,185$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.51643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02d5…eb49backed Canadiens50c1,185$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.51258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+20.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x50a9…51b4backed Ducks50c1,185$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.5944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc66…bba6backed Canadiens50c1,180$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5901250%6 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f1b…d534backed Ducks50c1,180$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5901163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+32.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b72…0d17backed Ducks50c1,180$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5901040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf38c…28babacked Ducks50c1,180$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5901346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.