NHL · resolved market
Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7547ce4f6d334a167fb65240a5021e04c226d5b232c3ae8785c92323c1cb2b6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ducksof Canadiens, Ducks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,966
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,966 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Ducks | 71c | 671$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.59 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Canadiens | 29c | 506.09$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.77 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Canadiens | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 702 | 49%344 W · 358 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Canadiens | 4c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Ducks | 67c | 225$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Ducks | 66c | 177.4$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.28 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Ducks | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Ducks | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 979 | 55.5%543 W · 436 L | +21.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Ducks | 77c | 83$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Ducks | 71c | 64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Canadiens | 29c | 60.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Canadiens | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 416 | 50.7%211 W · 205 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Canadiens | 35c | 50.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…6573backed Canadiens | 32c | 48.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 210 | 42.4%89 W · 121 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Canadiens | 29c | 44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Canadiens | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Ducks | 69c | 32.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Canadiens | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Ducks | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 277 | 39.4%109 W · 168 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Ducks | 64c | 21.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)this page
- Canadiens vs. DucksDucks won
- Canadiens vs. Ducks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.