TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Game Handicap: G2 (-2.5) vs Team Secret Whales (+2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
G2 Esportsof G2 Esports, Team Secret Whales
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$59,419
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$64,526

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,419 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf68a…5b1bbacked G2 Esports35c9,062$3,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,888.9390348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8165…f688backed Team Secret Whales65c7,500$4,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,87514753.7%79 W · 68 L+0.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked G2 Esports35c7,299$2,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,743.8159248.3%286 W · 306 L+15.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8da…a6e6backed G2 Esports35c6,000$2,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,869.9612839.8%51 W · 77 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Team Secret Whales65c5,000$3,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,2506556.9%37 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88b9…0fc9backed Team Secret Whales64c4,000$2,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,560.2134837.4%130 W · 218 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Team Secret Whales55c2,608$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,439.919648%94 W · 102 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Team Secret Whales64c2,356$1,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,502.3370456.4%397 W · 307 L+39.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Team Secret Whales47c2,021$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.2178050%390 W · 390 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Team Secret Whales65c2,000$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3001,02952.3%538 W · 491 L+27.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed G2 Esports34c1,957$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,291.5531153.4%166 W · 145 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f4e…b690backed G2 Esports37c1,929$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,224.7682554.8%452 W · 373 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d9f…787abacked G2 Esports53c1,902$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902.4761045.2%276 W · 334 L+35.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd9aa…619cbacked Team Secret Whales64c1,866$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200.071442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.18per pick61cpaid-27.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Secret Whales39c1,804$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.942,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaab1…9b4fbacked Team Secret Whales65c1,531$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0009456.4%53 W · 41 L-5.6wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7aeb…01c2backed Team Secret Whales66c1,500$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.36per pick53cpaid-75.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed G2 Esports52c1,485$774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.121,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d29…6da9backed Team Secret Whales67c1,200$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80432752.9%173 W · 154 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked G2 Esports36c1,154$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.281,22448.3%591 W · 633 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Team Secret Whales61c1,014$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.141,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Team Secret Whales64c996.76$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.1885746.3%397 W · 460 L+17.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Team Secret Whales64c780.97$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.821,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6867…f8d2backed G2 Esports39c769.67$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.673100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+85.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Team Secret Whales63c765.87$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.53,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e3f…6941backed G2 Esports66c648.9$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.739447.2%186 W · 208 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5818…44a3backed G2 Esports52c640.84$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.781241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9eab…7e13backed G2 Esports53c638$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.9916045.6%73 W · 87 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-14%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc65…96c8backed G2 Esports35c590.53$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.5321939.3%86 W · 133 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked G2 Esports38c586.71$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.8850848.4%246 W · 262 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Team Secret Whales50c545.19$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.622,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8059…f1f3backed G2 Esports38c540.82$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.9624648.4%119 W · 127 L-13.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbed4…f891backed G2 Esports37c535.21$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.2151247.3%242 W · 270 L-9.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6eb8…c665backed G2 Esports37c528.76$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.1233143.8%145 W · 186 L-11.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed G2 Esports38c526$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.1241749.2%205 W · 212 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked G2 Esports36c500$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3201560%9 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+16%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88bd…c088backed G2 Esports37c473.67$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.412100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+106.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x92f5…13e5backed G2 Esports46c465.32$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.7723240.5%94 W · 138 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d7e…3248backed Team Secret Whales58c440$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25621735%76 W · 141 L+8.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x860e…a06dbacked G2 Esports36c416.67$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.675450%27 W · 27 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x224b…8927backed G2 Esports54c358.8$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.6242050.5%212 W · 208 L+27.9wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+9.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x93f4…ea90backed Team Secret Whales62c330$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.61,11049%544 W · 566 L+42.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3d1…f540backed Team Secret Whales62c325$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.521147.9%101 W · 110 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0640…1cd6backed Team Secret Whales63c317.46$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20014935.6%53 W · 96 L-12.7wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-28%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc54a…4b6fbacked Team Secret Whales66c314.5$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.577057.1%40 W · 30 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b63…4acdbacked G2 Esports33c313.17$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.8227447.8%131 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47c6…2fe4backed Team Secret Whales64c305.46$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.4456650%283 W · 283 L-14.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked G2 Esports36c303.44$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.214735.4%52 W · 95 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Team Secret Whales64c300$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19286649.7%430 W · 436 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked G2 Esports33c268.95$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.244743.6%195 W · 252 L+1.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc995…a06dbacked Team Secret Whales45c260.39$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.992142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1fc…bcdfbacked G2 Esports36c244.44$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.441631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.1wins-0.20per pick51cpaid-45.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed Team Secret Whales64c243.81$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.0444047.5%209 W · 231 L+11.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Team Secret Whales64c235.89$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.9796054.2%520 W · 440 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cb9…0f15backed G2 Esports43c233.48$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.48450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7044…2eb6backed G2 Esports73c233.44$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.4433857.1%193 W · 145 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8532…5fafbacked Team Secret Whales51c197.9$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.6356744.8%254 W · 313 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cd2…34e9backed Team Secret Whales66c196.97$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13077545%349 W · 426 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed Team Secret Whales49c182.4$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9041544.6%185 W · 230 L+16.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+14%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93ba…afdabacked Team Secret Whales54c172.83$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.6717616.5%29 W · 147 L-11.9wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-36.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb668…5e98backed G2 Esports36c165.97$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.221450%7 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4b95…b23ebacked Team Secret Whales65c155$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.751,02445%461 W · 563 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe02f…3d4cbacked Team Secret Whales65c153.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010652.8%56 W · 50 L-7.2wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-13.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5dcb…9371backed G2 Esports36c150$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$962100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+122.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b38…4d61backed G2 Esports36c149$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.7627248.9%133 W · 139 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c69…52fdbacked G2 Esports36c141.42$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.511154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.22per pick32cpaid+251.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2aa3…9b44backed Team Secret Whales66c140.89$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.991855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb503…7552backed G2 Esports36c140.73$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.1416346.6%76 W · 87 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27f3…8382backed G2 Esports37c135.53$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.537055.7%39 W · 31 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb2f9…eb15backed Team Secret Whales65c133.55$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.8115050%75 W · 75 L+8.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+17.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf135…3108backed G2 Esports38c129$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1c5…681ebacked G2 Esports36c126$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf163…ca34backed G2 Esports49c120.91$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.021,47748.3%713 W · 764 L+45.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…eff2backed G2 Esports35c116$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+45.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed G2 Esports37c112.64$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.9632941%135 W · 194 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd27…4721backed Team Secret Whales63c110$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.35950.8%30 W · 29 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-6.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd773…549ebacked Team Secret Whales50c110$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557557.3%43 W · 32 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5252…a7cdbacked G2 Esports37c107.7$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.764435.4%228 W · 416 L-28.0wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-22.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d0a…0809backed G2 Esports52c106.45$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.153829.4%158 W · 380 L-13.8wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked G2 Esports37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.071,24134.7%431 W · 810 L-2.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e0e…8763backed Team Secret Whales62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.57352.1%38 W · 35 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf91…5010backed Team Secret Whales63c100$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+34.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c43…fb9bbacked G2 Esports36c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643461.8%21 W · 13 L+5.4wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+34.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc3b2…0497backed Team Secret Whales65c100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654240.5%17 W · 25 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-23.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb146…c098backed Team Secret Whales50c99.6$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502650%13 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-2.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9cd…3499backed G2 Esports35c98.2$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.835450%27 W · 27 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed Team Secret Whales63c88.16$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8628559.6%170 W · 115 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Team Secret Whales37c87.55$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.031,83117.1%313 W · 1,518 L-236.0wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-46%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xc1c9…887fbacked Team Secret Whales65c84.62$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557149.3%35 W · 36 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bb4…692abacked G2 Esports36c82.2$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.61742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed G2 Esports33c82.1$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.0154129.9%162 W · 379 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe293…d3edbacked G2 Esports37c78.9$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.032236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Team Secret Whales51c78.58$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.142124.7%104 W · 317 L-51.1wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-47%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x2f1d…7ff3backed G2 Esports51c78.47$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.47475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+41.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed Team Secret Whales62c76.98$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7343148%207 W · 224 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5425…f968backed G2 Esports39c76.92$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.927742.9%33 W · 44 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e86…7932backed Team Secret Whales65c76.92$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5061150.6%309 W · 302 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef3d…0416backed Team Secret Whales66c75.76$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502050%10 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed G2 Esports37c70.84$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.6380832.9%266 W · 542 L-43.9wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e87…20cabacked Team Secret Whales63c70.4$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.35742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick63cpaid-33.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.