TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
G2of Natus Vincere, G2
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,189,534

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,189,534 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 645 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked G246c207,560$95,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111,968.542440.3%171 W · 253 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Natus Vincere54c80,452$43,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,199.1233043.3%143 W · 187 L+1.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e6a…5b18backed Natus Vincere53c50,000$26,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,500825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed Natus Vincere51c35,855$18,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,399.0372453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dc8…da92backed G278c26,154$20,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,837.46580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick70cpaid+13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked Natus Vincere29c24,878$7,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,136.2130726.4%81 W · 226 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed G246c20,318$9,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,971.9722049.1%108 W · 112 L+0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Natus Vincere54c20,031$10,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,816.284557.8%26 W · 19 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+20.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Natus Vincere52c16,635$8,719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,718.8535850.8%182 W · 176 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed Natus Vincere54c16,000$8,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,6407940.5%32 W · 47 L-7.3wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-16.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5e38…de0fbacked G251c15,623$7,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,683.0615760.5%95 W · 62 L+15.8wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed G260c15,265$9,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,107.181,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b5e…83f8backed Natus Vincere54c15,000$8,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,1003852.6%20 W · 18 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd92d…e560backed Natus Vincere28c14,000$3,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,929.9958651%299 W · 287 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17e0…80aebacked G277c13,889$10,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,230.33944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked G247c13,438$6,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,122.2283652.5%439 W · 397 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Natus Vincere23c13,120$3,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,068.332,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked G247c13,088$6,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,937.1932752.3%171 W · 156 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4189backed Natus Vincere47c12,670$5,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,934.3233452.1%174 W · 160 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed G262c11,112$6,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,197.289256.5%52 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Natus Vincere48c10,574$5,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,048.111,62944.8%730 W · 899 L+4.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked Natus Vincere54c10,370$5,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,60022654.9%124 W · 102 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ed0…a9c5backed Natus Vincere53c10,338$5,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,478.923953.8%21 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b9d…9b0ebacked Natus Vincere0c10,151$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1523234.9%81 W · 151 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7193…ae51backed G269c8,696$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,696.4929858.4%174 W · 124 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed G250c8,358$4,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,205.4323355.4%129 W · 104 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Natus Vincere33c7,687$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50032348.9%158 W · 165 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed G247c7,000$3,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,741.6635254%190 W · 162 L+13.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Natus Vincere54c6,542$3,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,532.7757358.8%337 W · 236 L+16.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf31b…241bbacked Natus Vincere25c5,956$1,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,481.8822927.5%63 W · 166 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked G266c5,919$3,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,031.022,22347.5%1,056 W · 1,167 L-5.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f40…e1f2backed G245c5,900$2,655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,244.984351.2%22 W · 21 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+18.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked G247c5,900$2,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,128.0384454.3%458 W · 386 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Natus Vincere52c5,865$3,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,049.8939249%192 W · 200 L+0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfedd…be0cbacked Natus Vincere54c5,745$3,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,087.311060%6 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed G278c5,700$4,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,25420249.5%100 W · 102 L-9.9wins-0.05per pick54cpaid+13.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x506b…3f70backed G246c5,682$2,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,062.146858.8%40 W · 28 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Natus Vincere20c5,574$1,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,133.882,09241.6%871 W · 1,221 L-50.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x44c5…8d45backed Natus Vincere56c5,500$3,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,079.9219455.2%107 W · 87 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b75…f8fabacked Natus Vincere55c5,452$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0002955.2%16 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb425…c80bbacked Natus Vincere57c5,451$3,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,081.271250%6 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5a6…5270backed G229c5,083$1,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,604.642634.6%9 W · 17 L-3.9wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-30.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x44d6…9858backed G242c5,000$2,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,877.35944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Natus Vincere54c4,890$2,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,640.4346949.7%233 W · 236 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bdd…1b11backed G244c4,749$2,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,657.4322045.5%100 W · 120 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2560…0b02backed Natus Vincere54c4,708$2,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,542.3222448.7%109 W · 115 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bcf…75c6backed Natus Vincere1c4,562$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523622.2%8 W · 28 L-5.6wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-55.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x686f…ccb1backed G247c4,530$2,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,400.826656.1%37 W · 29 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+6.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere19c4,513$862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861.93,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x90a1…73d6backed Natus Vincere57c4,500$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5501258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked G249c4,425$2,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,265.691,61945.5%737 W · 882 L+31.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2698…0958backed G246c4,348$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,348.166553.8%35 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b12…43c8backed G235c4,263$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,763.296836.8%25 W · 43 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-22.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Natus Vincere54c4,095$2,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,211.2724846.8%116 W · 132 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked Natus Vincere50c4,047$2,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,031.9847738.4%183 W · 294 L-26.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed G245c4,044$1,803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,240.1442341.8%177 W · 246 L-0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed G247c4,000$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,12072046.1%332 W · 388 L-2.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked G249c3,923$1,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,013.231,06049%519 W · 541 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed G270c3,908$2,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,161.3138546.2%178 W · 207 L-16.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a08…7eb3backed Natus Vincere4c3,793$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed G243c3,750$1,628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,122.589546.8%419 W · 476 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked G247c3,380$1,579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,800.4820539.5%81 W · 124 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed G245c3,300$1,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,817.981,25942.5%535 W · 724 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked G250c3,264$1,637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,626.183,23651.2%1,657 W · 1,579 L+88.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcaf…e271backed G221c3,253$683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,569.837946.4%176 W · 203 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Natus Vincere49c3,069$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50012552.8%66 W · 59 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd155…b339backed Natus Vincere54c3,055$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,649.68837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-34%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c4f…0f33backed G238c3,002$1,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,869.351250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70c1…dba0backed G267c3,000$2,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99016152.8%85 W · 76 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked Natus Vincere47c3,000$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,41015050.7%76 W · 74 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x61c0…e892backed Natus Vincere78c3,000$2,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,339.9333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed G222c3,000$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,339.997537.3%28 W · 47 L-7.6wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-20.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Natus Vincere10c2,855$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.8960540%242 W · 363 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x562b…f85fbacked G275c2,796$2,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698.965855.2%32 W · 26 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Natus Vincere12c2,795$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.4619645.4%89 W · 107 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8120…54c9backed G273c2,786$2,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.320838%79 W · 129 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb87…0335backed Natus Vincere54c2,726$1,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,471.6736554.8%200 W · 165 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1b07…96febacked Natus Vincere2c2,689$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.71464.3%2 W · 44 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-74.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x300c…7708backed Natus Vincere32c2,664$851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851.1633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1448…b30bbacked Natus Vincere2c2,350$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429546.3%44 W · 51 L+6.8wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+3.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcba0…97bfbacked Natus Vincere20c2,309$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.037647.4%36 W · 40 L+6.5wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+44.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked G279c2,168$1,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.441,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00ce…3f01backed G245c2,148$967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,181.3915249.3%75 W · 77 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked G247c2,128$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,127.835644.6%25 W · 31 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x598b…f296backed G272c2,000$1,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.0112446.8%58 W · 66 L-9.6wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-14.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x11e5…337ebacked G246c2,000$918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,081.9722550.7%114 W · 111 L+0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed G247c2,000$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,059.981,08950.9%554 W · 535 L+38.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed G237c2,000$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,269.9713545.9%62 W · 73 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed G225c1,954$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,470.455736.3%202 W · 355 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Natus Vincere54c1,948$1,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,058.815349.1%26 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb691…b39dbacked G225c1,914$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,429.697142.3%30 W · 41 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3402…9446backed Natus Vincere54c1,852$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010043%43 W · 57 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Natus Vincere54c1,852$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020458.3%119 W · 85 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c59…3887backed G247c1,785$835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$949.921941.1%90 W · 129 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Natus Vincere23c1,752$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.1532930.4%100 W · 229 L-21.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-50.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6183…575fbacked Natus Vincere40c1,732$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7003240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdd7…05d8backed G264c1,719$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.751752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc25…4fa8backed Natus Vincere29c1,719$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.8713453%71 W · 63 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Natus Vincere44c1,613$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.4846843.4%203 W · 265 L-11.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Natus Vincere54c1,594$865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$865.0687244.8%391 W · 481 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.