TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
B8of FURIA, B8
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$753,199

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $753,199 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 550 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked B839c128,438$49,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78,853.5342440.3%171 W · 253 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed B837c37,349$13,884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,465.1833043.3%143 W · 187 L+1.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed FURIA52c18,888$9,822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,821.7688242.3%373 W · 509 L-13.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3505…f7a3backed FURIA62c18,509$11,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,455.344344.2%19 W · 24 L-5.0wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-25.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe85d…95d8backed FURIA76c16,125$12,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,298.832240.9%9 W · 13 L-5.2wins-0.24per pick65cpaid-37.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x3e6a…5b18backed B821c15,443$3,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,201.44825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed FURIA53c12,975$6,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,846.221,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e38…de0fbacked B836c12,787$4,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,178.5815760.5%95 W · 62 L+15.8wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed FURIA76c12,253$9,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,290.3512648.4%61 W · 65 L-10.4wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-20.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa7ea…bbb3backed B836c11,025$3,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,079.259153.8%49 W · 42 L+6.8wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked FURIA67c10,841$7,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,233.62,21447.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L-5.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked FURIA54c10,577$5,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,714.3132930.4%100 W · 229 L-21.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-50.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed FURIA79c10,000$7,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,899.9771645.9%329 W · 387 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c45…0ac6backed FURIA38c7,349$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8002433.3%8 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked B828c7,300$2,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,2565444.4%24 W · 30 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked FURIA63c6,606$4,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,194.123,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked B846c6,481$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,481.1984454.3%458 W · 386 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a09…db1cbacked FURIA79c6,400$5,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0568261%50 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked FURIA66c6,077$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00032348.9%158 W · 165 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b75…f8fabacked FURIA52c6,000$3,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1202955.2%16 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed FURIA63c5,896$3,731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,730.734,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked B821c5,610$1,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,431.920539.5%81 W · 124 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed FURIA57c5,481$3,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,100.96,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked B856c5,403$3,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,351.992,32655.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L+44.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfecb…19babacked FURIA76c5,239$3,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,981.69650%3 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd50c…76c3backed FURIA64c5,209$3,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,330.311361.1%69 W · 44 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x108d…b85dbacked B839c5,000$1,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,039.54650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2560…0b02backed FURIA80c4,864$3,876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,875.9722448.7%109 W · 115 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb20…d0bdbacked FURIA80c4,613$3,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,690757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40f8…327dbacked B847c4,600$2,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,438.28654.7%47 W · 39 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x40ed…4ae2backed B859c4,278$2,537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,740.95450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed FURIA79c4,000$3,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,159.9872453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked FURIA55c3,867$2,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,122.161,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x757f…311dbacked FURIA76c3,829$2,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,909.773754.1%20 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xff6b…e45fbacked FURIA76c3,824$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9001250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed B845c3,636$1,652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,983.951,03361.6%636 W · 397 L+87.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9e04…28a9backed B825c3,524$881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,642.6736645.4%166 W · 200 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed B820c3,250$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6001,41133.7%475 W · 936 L+42.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed FURIA60c3,205$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,919.6646344.5%206 W · 257 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce8b…6bc7backed FURIA80c3,081$2,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,465.024158.5%24 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick66cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe2a5…391cbacked FURIA72c3,073$2,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,227.4410550.5%53 W · 52 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed FURIA59c3,047$1,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,798.1738037.4%142 W · 238 L-14.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked FURIA79c3,033$2,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,396.0744957.5%258 W · 191 L-19.7wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-5.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed FURIA80c3,005$2,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40424846.8%116 W · 132 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed B820c3,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,399.9642142%177 W · 244 L+0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x809c…eca3backed FURIA70c2,934$2,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,065.324759.6%28 W · 19 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf026…8df7backed FURIA58c2,894$1,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,689.8429244.5%130 W · 162 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fe9…706abacked FURIA71c2,798$1,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,99016448.2%79 W · 85 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa661…eb28backed FURIA76c2,730$2,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,061.512742.5%54 W · 73 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked FURIA35c2,603$914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$914.033,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked FURIA40c2,566$1,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,018.7447738.4%183 W · 294 L-26.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked B827c2,546$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,870.9252837.1%196 W · 332 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…9b5ebacked B821c2,500$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9753132.3%10 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cb4…00eabacked FURIA80c2,500$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0004957.1%28 W · 21 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-5.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked FURIA75c2,475$1,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,859.0317042.9%73 W · 97 L-8.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x602a…0d75backed FURIA76c2,433$1,849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,848.892339.1%9 W · 14 L-4.1wins-0.18per pick57cpaid-36.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x861f…a189backed FURIA53c2,413$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,280.3892152.6%484 W · 437 L+16.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed B830c2,368$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,657.2619549.7%97 W · 98 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked FURIA57c2,293$1,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,304.2748948.7%238 W · 251 L-0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f6d…3070backed FURIA45c2,291$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,023.3716829.2%49 W · 119 L-14.4wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-41.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed FURIA57c2,284$1,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,307.5527443.1%118 W · 156 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x22d2…82d7backed FURIA48c2,200$1,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,059.4414137.6%53 W · 88 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd92d…e560backed FURIA62c2,200$1,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,36558651%299 W · 287 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked FURIA77c2,193$1,681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,681.457,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked B820c2,170$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,736.330726.4%81 W · 226 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2e5…ebeabacked FURIA18c2,100$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3809550.5%48 W · 47 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c59…3887backed B830c2,093$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,458.6121941.1%90 W · 129 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed FURIA51c2,075$1,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,055.2930335.6%108 W · 195 L-13.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-28.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6fdd…d385backed FURIA72c2,054$1,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,478.44346.5%20 W · 23 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked B820c2,016$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,617.555,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x274f…fbf4backed FURIA71c2,000$1,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,429.988862.5%55 W · 33 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-5.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed FURIA61c1,994$1,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,21078639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5a6…5270backed FURIA79c1,960$1,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,548.42634.6%9 W · 17 L-3.9wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-30.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xfb87…0335backed B827c1,868$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,368.2536554.8%200 W · 165 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked B822c1,862$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,452.4721424.8%53 W · 161 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4042…0bdabacked B857c1,760$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761.0318049.4%89 W · 91 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6463…1f5cbacked B821c1,680$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,329.573951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb4…48bebacked FURIA61c1,671$1,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,024.245341.5%22 W · 31 L-5.4wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-23.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf7c7…620cbacked FURIA54c1,657$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$894.5214144%62 W · 79 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed B841c1,599$661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$937.7660848%292 W · 316 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71fa…c7e1backed B822c1,586$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,237.362339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+35.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfabf…231cbacked FURIA21c1,534$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.643630.6%11 W · 25 L-4.9wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-41.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked FURIA37c1,515$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.233,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed FURIA52c1,407$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726.0288746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdff0…f573backed B826c1,399$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,031.5434146.6%159 W · 182 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed FURIA52c1,386$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.5845058.9%265 W · 185 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed B845c1,324$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$728.3564552.9%341 W · 304 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9ae…a7b9backed B846c1,302$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.46742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe792…80bcbacked FURIA56c1,247$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7003050%15 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked FURIA78c1,206$941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$941.3183652.5%439 W · 397 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…9a01backed FURIA54c1,162$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.4443933.7%148 W · 291 L-0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed B832c1,118$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$758.4961837.9%234 W · 384 L-22.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed B820c1,112$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$889.232,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b22…ba7bbacked B827c1,111$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811.1110345.6%47 W · 56 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9767…b5c4backed FURIA54c1,111$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6009850%49 W · 49 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd01a…bf29backed FURIA60c1,080$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.1710167.3%68 W · 33 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3265…d5b8backed FURIA76c1,060$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805.4313043.1%56 W · 74 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc5…d1a4backed B830c1,037$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$728.295648.2%27 W · 29 L+7.2wins+0.13per pick35cpaid+24.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked FURIA43c1,028$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.232,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1064…f153backed B821c1,000$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79016149.1%79 W · 82 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.