TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Hurricanes vs. Oilers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hurricanesof Hurricanes, Oilers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,355,655

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,355,655 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,338 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x03e8…1697backed Oilers49c225,478$109,797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109,796.7167051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Oilers41c137,307$56,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56,218.948545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Hurricanes52c124,540$64,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60,398.5648549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Oilers48c124,388$59,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59,752.451,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Hurricanes59c117,805$69,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,947.3440351.9%209 W · 194 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Hurricanes52c45,125$23,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,659.3661953.8%333 W · 286 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Hurricanes51c40,040$20,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,573.6856152%292 W · 269 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Hurricanes52c38,756$20,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,717.628450%42 W · 42 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Oilers49c36,882$18,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,072.2715054.7%82 W · 68 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Oilers48c33,000$15,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,839.922550.2%113 W · 112 L+1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Hurricanes51c25,000$12,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,2505261.5%32 W · 20 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Hurricanes51c18,888$9,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,255.1221850.9%111 W · 107 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Hurricanes51c18,294$9,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,964.0156649.5%280 W · 286 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Hurricanes52c16,595$8,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,965.679350.1%397 W · 396 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Oilers48c15,000$7,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,2004546.7%21 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Hurricanes52c12,725$6,617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,107.8961748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Hurricanes52c11,550$6,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,54415145%68 W · 83 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Oilers48c11,000$5,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,259.915749.7%78 W · 79 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Hurricanes53c10,432$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,931.9740356.3%227 W · 176 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Hurricanes52c8,917$4,636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,280.5845751.6%236 W · 221 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Hurricanes52c8,585$4,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,153.621,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Hurricanes52c8,499$4,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,079.3728251.8%146 W · 136 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Hurricanes51c8,417$4,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,124.375046%23 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Hurricanes75c8,299$6,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,051.6989636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6149…7821backed Hurricanes51c8,000$4,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,9201100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…7be6backed Hurricanes52c7,005$3,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,362.391729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-34.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Oilers29c6,877$1,979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,978.9211950.4%60 W · 59 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Hurricanes53c6,604$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,103.7723047.4%109 W · 121 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Hurricanes53c6,272$3,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,947.732151.7%166 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c16…8bfabacked Oilers25c6,250$1,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,562.53764.9%24 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Hurricanes51c6,222$3,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,048.781,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Oilers47c6,000$2,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,819.9150049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Hurricanes51c5,784$2,941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,842.952,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c45…0ac6backed Oilers37c5,379$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44d6…9858backed Hurricanes51c5,000$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,45029146.7%136 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Hurricanes51c5,000$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,45083652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Oilers16c4,700$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767.9760337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Oilers47c4,468$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,100.0647951.4%246 W · 233 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Hurricanes52c4,327$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,076.9228152%146 W · 135 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6479…5e64backed Hurricanes68c4,188$2,848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,340.1720651%105 W · 101 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Oilers48c4,167$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00085250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Hurricanes51c3,921$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,921.2952050%260 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fe3…e0fdbacked Hurricanes52c3,853$2,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,849.4619051.1%97 W · 93 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Oilers48c3,795$1,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,822.561,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ebbabacked Oilers49c3,700$1,813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,813250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93cd…afddbacked Oilers49c3,600$1,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,76410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Hurricanes51c3,500$1,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,698.8360249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83ab…3d56backed Hurricanes51c3,444$1,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,687.564949%24 W · 25 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Hurricanes66c3,335$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,135.4921555.3%119 W · 96 L+17.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+12.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Hurricanes54c3,197$1,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,466.1543456%243 W · 191 L+16.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaabb…5554backed Hurricanes51c3,000$1,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,458.7545749.2%225 W · 232 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Hurricanes52c3,000$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,44022747.6%108 W · 119 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Hurricanes51c3,000$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,47027048.1%130 W · 140 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Oilers48c3,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,44030552.5%160 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Hurricanes52c3,000$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,44068449.9%341 W · 343 L-3.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Hurricanes53c3,000$1,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,410.0722946.3%106 W · 123 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Hurricanes51c2,937$1,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,430.7154047.6%257 W · 283 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Hurricanes53c2,830$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,330.1931550.8%160 W · 155 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Oilers24c2,500$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60051452.3%269 W · 245 L+17.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Hurricanes51c2,500$1,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,22584953.8%457 W · 392 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Hurricanes51c2,356$1,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,154.5463249.5%313 W · 319 L+2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Hurricanes53c2,240$1,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,054.5861950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Hurricanes52c2,222$1,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,066.5675251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Oilers45c2,170$978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$978.271,10752%576 W · 531 L+63.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+7.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Hurricanes63c2,068$1,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$760.131,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Hurricanes52c2,000$1,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97027850.4%140 W · 138 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed Hurricanes52c2,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9602142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Hurricanes52c2,000$1,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97043548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e78…4875backed Oilers48c1,995$958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$957.6850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24d5…7357backed Oilers48c1,995$958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$957.61050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a1d…d4d9backed Hurricanes52c1,995$1,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$957.61346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b03…f006backed Oilers48c1,995$958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$957.6933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf29…197abacked Hurricanes52c1,995$1,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$957.6862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+19.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9eaa…2ad3backed Hurricanes52c1,995$1,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$957.61145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c7d…2f62backed Hurricanes52c1,990$1,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$955.2862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79bc…782ebacked Oilers48c1,990$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$955.2966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+25.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Oilers48c1,988$954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954.0991945.6%419 W · 500 L-27.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84ed…5315backed Hurricanes52c1,985$1,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$952.8785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick53cpaid+60.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5a80…1cf9backed Oilers48c1,985$953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952.8771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+33%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xae5d…5d16backed Oilers48c1,980$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.41154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf75c…184fbacked Hurricanes52c1,980$1,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$950.41241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-25.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8375…5bb6backed Oilers48c1,975$948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9481030%3 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-39.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x51fc…9c44backed Hurricanes52c1,975$1,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$948837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-32.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd133…6ed4backed Oilers48c1,970$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.61154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c8b…f533backed Hurricanes52c1,970$1,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$945.61163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+22.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43a6…1712backed Oilers48c1,970$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.6955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x398a…624bbacked Hurricanes52c1,970$1,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$945.6966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+42.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf70…1fa1backed Oilers48c1,970$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.6862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2734…8b31backed Hurricanes52c1,970$1,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$945.6966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+24%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0cc0…ac57backed Oilers48c1,965$943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943.2933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd005…0608backed Hurricanes52c1,965$1,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$943.2955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f0e…cd22backed Oilers48c1,960$941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$940.8955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47eb…60cbbacked Hurricanes52c1,960$1,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$940.8850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48f2…b9b7backed Oilers48c1,960$941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$940.8825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-56.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x17e1…2040backed Hurricanes52c1,960$1,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$940.81225%3 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-44.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc979…442cbacked Oilers48c1,955$938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$938.41080%8 W · 2 L+3.1wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+66.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xde5f…1155backed Oilers48c1,955$938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$938.4837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cb2…7577backed Hurricanes52c1,955$1,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938.4771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick52cpaid+33%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x18cd…6327backed Hurricanes52c1,955$1,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938.41154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b2b…b50cbacked Oilers48c1,955$938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$938.4862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+16.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.