TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Tundra Esportsof Aurora, Tundra Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$146,101

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $146,101 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x66fb…9f72backed Aurora46c10,820$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00054556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70c1…dba0backed Aurora34c8,221$2,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,788.4222643.8%99 W · 127 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x55af…0715backed Tundra Esports73c6,823$5,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,815.853164.5%20 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x00ce…3f01backed Aurora46c6,441$2,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,975.6315345.8%70 W · 83 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked Tundra Esports54c6,372$3,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,931.3436041.4%149 W · 211 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Tundra Esports71c6,076$4,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,761.9496557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ab4…96a5backed Aurora41c5,400$2,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,217.9811854.2%64 W · 54 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed Tundra Esports57c5,157$2,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,199.0314840.5%60 W · 88 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8310…8967backed Tundra Esports57c3,000$1,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,290.119657.3%55 W · 41 L+8.5wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcc81…5df2backed Aurora34c2,648$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.339557.9%55 W · 40 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x506b…3f70backed Aurora25c2,492$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.536145.9%28 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f9…cf34backed Tundra Esports74c2,206$1,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.2518661.8%115 W · 71 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Tundra Esports70c2,186$1,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.481,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked Aurora20c2,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40041242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Tundra Esports54c2,000$1,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93089440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Tundra Esports65c2,000$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70079959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2b12…43c8backed Tundra Esports57c1,755$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.681947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9767…b5c4backed Aurora35c1,641$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.0415946.5%74 W · 85 L+0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Aurora23c1,563$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.61,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Aurora30c1,370$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.2166662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x17ca…87d1backed Tundra Esports74c1,348$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.3819552.8%103 W · 92 L-15.2wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-15%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xad8d…a233backed Aurora44c1,300$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa895…debfbacked Tundra Esports56c1,300$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed Aurora47c1,286$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60033041.8%138 W · 192 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Tundra Esports54c1,200$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.9985851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x41a3…017dbacked Aurora31c1,168$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.636250%31 W · 31 L-5.7wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-23.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Aurora37c1,110$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.439837.8%37 W · 61 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x786a…9cd5backed Aurora29c1,102$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3202142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid-15.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x772c…3539backed Aurora36c1,063$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.965543.6%24 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2a2…2800backed Aurora1c1,028$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e38…de0fbacked Aurora20c1,012$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.536043.3%26 W · 34 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked Aurora12c920.22$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.4237811.1%42 W · 336 L+0.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Tundra Esports61c914$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.2355751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb74c…b149backed Aurora5c901.98$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.01450%0 W · 45 L-7.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Tundra Esports69c900.96$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.4913455.2%74 W · 60 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4a9…3d6fbacked Tundra Esports62c800.47$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.779145.1%41 W · 50 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Tundra Esports74c760.6$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.161435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-29.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7576…3ff4backed Tundra Esports75c733.32$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.63158.1%18 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Tundra Esports53c727.3$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.5960552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3fb…19c0backed Aurora23c700$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1616735.8%24 W · 43 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed Tundra Esports66c699.98$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.9953652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Aurora5c699.8$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.66132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f45…ab6abacked Aurora28c683.89$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.071952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86f8…1655backed Tundra Esports51c660$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.43060%18 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Aurora24c605.35$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.612,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6503…0c3dbacked Aurora17c600$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1028461.9%52 W · 32 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x860e…a06dbacked Aurora19c588.9$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11016440.2%66 W · 98 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Aurora26c580.11$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c29…21aabacked Aurora23c551.88$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.938060%48 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7072…abccbacked Tundra Esports79c500$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10512868%87 W · 41 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x274f…971abacked Tundra Esports64c469.38$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.3814657.5%84 W · 62 L+0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f9c…101cbacked Tundra Esports65c419.26$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.138458.3%49 W · 35 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-13%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked Aurora50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20046240.7%188 W · 274 L+15.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Aurora36c400$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.423650.4%119 W · 117 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed Aurora29c384.91$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.646649.8%232 W · 234 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc03e…da65backed Tundra Esports78c340$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.86650%33 W · 33 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x363a…4a8dbacked Tundra Esports64c311.28$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.288258.5%48 W · 34 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cb5…6be6backed Tundra Esports59c300$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12325639.5%101 W · 155 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Aurora21c300$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6339660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x930e…38cfbacked Aurora10c300$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3137018.9%70 W · 300 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Aurora45c299.97$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.991,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb8e…962bbacked Aurora24c289.57$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-57.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed Aurora35c286.51$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10064149.9%320 W · 321 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f37…9b2bbacked Tundra Esports57c279.59$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.22650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01d4…33d8backed Tundra Esports75c266.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6711757.3%67 W · 50 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed Tundra Esports79c253.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.1646664.2%299 W · 167 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86c4…fe40backed Aurora23c221.51$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0450%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc59…269cbacked Aurora47c211$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1730%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Aurora43c210.99$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.411,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92f5…13e5backed Tundra Esports55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.713138.9%51 W · 80 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdab8…1bc7backed Tundra Esports55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+17.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x88fb…9278backed Tundra Esports57c199$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.57580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+41.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe48c…163abacked Tundra Esports57c158.63$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.52250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed Aurora29c149.96$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9997142.7%415 W · 556 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Tundra Esports67c149.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.251,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Tundra Esports57c131.58$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.5873554.7%402 W · 333 L-3.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Aurora24c129.17$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3160646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora17c128.75$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.532,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Tundra Esports60c127.33$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.5374549.3%367 W · 378 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd36…873bbacked Aurora13c119.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.540539.3%159 W · 246 L-0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbda6…6ae0backed Aurora36c110$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1636051.9%187 W · 173 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4c0…23d8backed Aurora34c108.82$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3723957.3%137 W · 102 L+8.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdcb…b106backed Tundra Esports73c106.01$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.891637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-42%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a96…3087backed Tundra Esports57c105.26$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.2613850%69 W · 69 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc8b…8925backed Aurora43c103.27$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4130%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c57…bf46backed Tundra Esports56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444250%21 W · 21 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0c7…133dbacked Aurora22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2211447.4%54 W · 60 L+7.1wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb431…b654backed Aurora43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-53.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8b8…61dcbacked Tundra Esports55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4518065.6%118 W · 62 L+9.4wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Tundra Esports51c98.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.0491553.3%488 W · 427 L+48.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f4f…c2f1backed Aurora33c95.82$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.626555.4%36 W · 29 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f1d…32fabacked Aurora43c95.73$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b93…a08abacked Tundra Esports53c94.28$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.31650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c2a…e715backed Aurora43c90.93$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed Aurora23c90$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.463032.5%205 W · 425 L+1.4wins0.00per pick32cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f0a…7ca8backed Aurora43c88.66$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1240%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc209…7924backed Aurora34c88.24$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3050757.4%291 W · 216 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb34…507bbacked Aurora19c88.02$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.721723.5%4 W · 13 L-5.2wins-0.31per pick54cpaid-52.4%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed Aurora36c83$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8811841.5%49 W · 69 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe252…2071backed Aurora14c80$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1117149.7%85 W · 86 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.