Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: Tundra (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d3d92dabea7c51a88a4551f9e27f229b49ed8f2f487295f9f29aa718153d287
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Tundra Esports, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,634 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8e0…d8c9backed Tundra Esports | 24c | 418$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f64…c26ebacked Tundra Esports | 24c | 394$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8875…a435backed Tundra Esports | 24c | 364$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4c…e430backed Tundra Esports | 39c | 257.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…0a79backed Aurora | 76c | 256$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2332…65bfbacked Aurora | 76c | 246$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb92d…c949backed Aurora | 76c | 231$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae78…a9c0backed Aurora | 76c | 230$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dd…3d28backed Aurora | 76c | 228$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…26a1backed Aurora | 76c | 217$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Aurora | 62c | 212.35$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.65 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…4ebbbacked Tundra Esports | 24c | 192$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc6…437cbacked Aurora | 76c | 184$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb2…4aa7backed Aurora | 76c | 177$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…2978backed Tundra Esports | 24c | 176$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3799…e469backed Tundra Esports | 24c | 161$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bee…e475backed Aurora | 76c | 155$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…6093backed Aurora | 76c | 155$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…e4e3backed Aurora | 76c | 139$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9c…14d0backed Tundra Esports | 24c | 102$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cfb…9efabacked Tundra Esports | 24c | 99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9872…8b73backed Tundra Esports | 24c | 92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2481…4ae4backed Tundra Esports | 24c | 79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc805…c4e7backed Tundra Esports | 24c | 79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Aurora | 59c | 76.26$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f6…a12bbacked Tundra Esports | 24c | 59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53f0…fff4backed Aurora | 55c | 44.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 47 | 72.3%34 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed Tundra Esports | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 189 | 54%102 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c0…23d8backed Tundra Esports | 35c | 31.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 239 | 57.3%137 W · 102 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Aurora | 64c | 21.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: Tundra (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group StageAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 WinnerTundra Esports won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.