Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55e52d599f5ef2fa78abdebb8f1206de10ea68bbdd9da91eccfe46dc9709da29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,469 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8310…8967backed Over | 52c | 6,546$3,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,142.06 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +8.5wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…0e84backed Under | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…844bbacked Under | 48c | 1,925$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Under | 48c | 719.41$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.32 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7715…654fbacked Over | 49c | 387$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d94…43fdbacked Under | 51c | 356$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…0aa4backed Over | 49c | 351$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3357…0972backed Under | 51c | 336$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85f4…9a7cbacked Over | 49c | 328$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…89cfbacked Under | 47c | 316.2$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.61 | 360 | 41.4%149 W · 211 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe956…59edbacked Over | 49c | 312$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf5…b1d0backed Under | 48c | 298$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.04 | 286 | 50%143 W · 143 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785d…2552backed Over | 49c | 291$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0be…75e3backed Over | 49c | 287$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed8f…5aa7backed Under | 48c | 281.48$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.11 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3d…1f52backed Under | 48c | 264.58$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3720…280dbacked Under | 51c | 263$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…cc8abacked Under | 51c | 246$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9a…ca6ebacked Over | 49c | 226$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb121…ea0ebacked Under | 51c | 220$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…44b3backed Over | 53c | 213.89$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb47…26d3backed Over | 49c | 212$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9d…464ebacked Under | 51c | 209$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb10…f669backed Under | 51c | 207$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Under | 48c | 206.25$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 341 | 54.5%186 W · 155 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5206…7bd0backed Under | 48c | 191.46$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa63…261fbacked Under | 48c | 189.94$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe753…bdd9backed Under | 51c | 187$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cf…30ecbacked Under | 51c | 187$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf7…381ebacked Under | 51c | 183$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9146…241abacked Over | 53c | 167.51$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc995…2224backed Under | 48c | 122.92$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebf8…7d2bbacked Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 105 | 41%43 W · 62 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Under | 48c | 79.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Over | 52c | 71.15$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 47c | 65.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group StageAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 WinnerTundra Esports won
- Game Handicap: Tundra (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5)Aurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.