Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x154a49b714abaed9f6b9c0533ae9ddd480d8c3c1af679eb3155372c00483852d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, Tundra Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,252 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Aurora | 45c | 11,333$5,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,233.33 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…89cfbacked Tundra Esports | 55c | 9,994$5,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,496.71 | 360 | 41.4%149 W · 211 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x506b…3f70backed Aurora | 43c | 7,831$3,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,497.88 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Aurora | 42c | 5,609$2,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,233.67 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…5df2backed Tundra Esports | 54c | 3,000$1,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,619.32 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Tundra Esports | 57c | 2,000$1,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,148.39 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed Tundra Esports | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,119.99 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Tundra Esports | 55c | 1,907$1,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040.52 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Tundra Esports | 69c | 1,829$1,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,261.39 | 166 | 65.7%109 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8120…54c9backed Tundra Esports | 59c | 1,807$1,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,067 | 79 | 41.8%33 W · 46 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…bce9backed Tundra Esports | 60c | 1,750$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053.98 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Aurora | 39c | 1,557$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$946.93 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad8d…a233backed Aurora | 43c | 1,500$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…debfbacked Tundra Esports | 57c | 1,500$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…e05fbacked Aurora | 45c | 1,351$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.02 | 412 | 42.2%174 W · 238 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x786a…9cd5backed Aurora | 35c | 1,348$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.23 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…96a5backed Aurora | 42c | 1,344$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.25 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Tundra Esports | 5c | 1,320$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 613 | 2.1%13 W · 600 L | -23.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb04b…e2d4backed Aurora | 38c | 1,300$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.65 | 161 | 42.9%69 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Aurora | 45c | 1,257$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.65 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…de0fbacked Aurora | 43c | 1,247$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.11 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2416…6e91backed Aurora | 48c | 1,242$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.03 | 386 | 53.9%208 W · 178 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Aurora | 37c | 1,196$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.33 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…a818backed Aurora | 45c | 1,100$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.99 | 587 | 44%258 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Tundra Esports | 55c | 999.33$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.63 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…ed28backed Tundra Esports | 56c | 998.97$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.24 | 605 | 52.6%318 W · 287 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Tundra Esports | 51c | 915.12$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.83 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Aurora | 38c | 907.44$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.08 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4c…e430backed Tundra Esports | 55c | 903.81$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55af…0715backed Tundra Esports | 70c | 837.06$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.4 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe375…dadfbacked Tundra Esports | 66c | 757.58$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 129 | 48.1%62 W · 67 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9a…a06bbacked Aurora | 15c | 736.79$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.01 | 378 | 11.1%42 W · 336 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a12…d212backed Tundra Esports | 59c | 677.97$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x772c…3539backed Aurora | 43c | 578.76$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.76 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdab8…1bc7backed Aurora | 41c | 501.34$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.24 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Aurora | 50c | 501.26$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.11 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a9…3d6fbacked Tundra Esports | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.75 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6503…0c3dbacked Tundra Esports | 54c | 500$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Tundra Esports | 67c | 493.09$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.29 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Aurora | 47c | 475.77$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.02 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked Aurora | 43c | 464.42$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.42 | 462 | 40.7%188 W · 274 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b6…ad8ebacked Tundra Esports | 25c | 460$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Tundra Esports | 61c | 450$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.4 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x860e…a06dbacked Aurora | 47c | 406.17$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.17 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x491d…f42bbacked Tundra Esports | 57c | 400$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.9 | 396 | 60.1%238 W · 158 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Tundra Esports | 28c | 387.28$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.2 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e64…89c3backed Aurora | 69c | 375.77$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.77 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Tundra Esports | 54c | 349.28$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.25 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a97…66f5backed Tundra Esports | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…4a8dbacked Tundra Esports | 61c | 327.56$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Aurora | 35c | 327$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…6128backed Tundra Esports | 63c | 319.49$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.16 | 180 | 75%135 W · 45 L | +18.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Aurora | 61c | 299.99$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.47 | 236 | 50.4%119 W · 117 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Aurora | 44c | 299.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x274f…971abacked Aurora | 71c | 280.13$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.13 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec6…9404backed Tundra Esports | 56c | 271$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.76 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe6…5d3fbacked Tundra Esports | 43c | 267.13$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.25 | 94 | 30.9%29 W · 65 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked Aurora | 39c | 255.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.95 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Tundra Esports | 63c | 249.59$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.37 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8e…962bbacked Aurora | 46c | 219.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.05 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc03e…da65backed Tundra Esports | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Tundra Esports | 50c | 199.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Aurora | 48c | 199.57$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.01 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc59…269cbacked Tundra Esports | 36c | 188.89$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Tundra Esports | 59c | 184.87$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.73 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2775…3652backed Aurora | 42c | 180.55$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.17 | 330 | 41.8%138 W · 192 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01d4…33d8backed Aurora | 43c | 175.44$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.44 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Tundra Esports | 48c | 170.75$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.17 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x561d…94bebacked Tundra Esports | 58c | 170.69$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +6.4wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Aurora | 40c | 158.86$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.54 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3e…776bbacked Aurora | 34c | 148.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.99 | 192 | 51.6%99 W · 93 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed Aurora | 40c | 130$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.3 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda6…6ae0backed Aurora | 37c | 121$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.68 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912e…0eaebacked Tundra Esports | 38c | 102.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe3…fec3backed Aurora | 41c | 101.8$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.06 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3726…8521backed Tundra Esports | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x930e…38cfbacked Aurora | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 370 | 18.9%70 W · 300 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa7…003fbacked Tundra Esports | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 450 | 52.4%236 W · 214 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c52…e75fbacked Tundra Esports | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 137 | 32.8%45 W · 92 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Tundra Esports | 58c | 94.42$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 466 | 64.2%299 W · 167 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb74c…b149backed Tundra Esports | 29c | 93.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 45 | 0%0 W · 45 L | -7.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Tundra Esports | 55c | 93.24$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.28 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked Tundra Esports | 65c | 92.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 353 | 70%247 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…ab6abacked Aurora | 42c | 91.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.35 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Tundra Esports | 29c | 90$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Tundra Esports | 60c | 85.74$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.54 | 576 | 54.5%314 W · 262 L | +29.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed Aurora | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed Tundra Esports | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c0…23d8backed Tundra Esports | 66c | 76.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 239 | 57.3%137 W · 102 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a4…4249backed Aurora | 71c | 75.94$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 196 | 64.8%127 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13aa…88d6backed Aurora | 41c | 74.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.01 | 187 | 69%129 W · 58 L | +20.5wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Tundra Esports | 45c | 73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbce0…d031backed Aurora | 37c | 70.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…ffa9backed Aurora | 33c | 67.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 150 | 33.3%50 W · 100 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Aurora | 43c | 63.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3938…c6cbbacked Tundra Esports | 68c | 60.28$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…3344backed Aurora | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 136 | 55.9%76 W · 60 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed Tundra Esports | 54c | 58.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c68…570cbacked Tundra Esports | 62c | 56.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Tundra Esports | 58c | 51.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 204 | 57.8%118 W · 86 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group StageAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 WinnerTundra Esports won
- Game Handicap: Tundra (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5)Aurora won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.